turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2022-1-3-60-71turan-2824Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА: ИСТОРИЯ, ТЕОРИЯ, ПРАКТИКАECONOMY: HISTORY, THEORY, PRACTICEДемографические процессы в Казахстане: современные тенденции и прогнозирование будущего развитияDemographic processes in Kazakhstan: current trends and forecasting the future developmenthttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681СпанкуловаЛ. С.SpankulovaL. S.

д.э.н., доцент

г. Алматы

d.e.s., associate professor 

Almaty

spankulova@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9333-7582ЧулановаЗ. К.ChulanovaZ. K.

к.э.н., ведущий научный сотрудник

г. Алматы

c.e.s., leading researcher 

Almaty

zaure.ch@mail.ruКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstanИнститут экономики Комитета науки МОНКазахстанInstitute of Economics of the Science Committee of the Ministry of Education and ScienceKazakhstan202210102022036071Copyright © Спанкулова Л.С., Чуланова З.К., 20222022Спанкулова Л.С., Чуланова З.К.Spankulova L.S., Chulanova Z.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/2824

Экономическое развитие любой страны зависит от характера демографических процессов. Численность населения и его состав напрямую влияют на масштабы производства, демографические процессы – рождаемость, смертность, миграция – во многом зависят от социально-экономической ситуации и уровня жизни населения. Целью исследования является оценка текущего состояния демографических процессов в Казахстане и прогноз их развития до 2050 года. В статье дается краткая характеристика демографического развития за годы независимости с выделением 3 основных этапов, различных по своей динамике и фоновым социальноэкономическим условиям, начиная с демографического кризиса 1990-х годов с угрозой депопуляции до стабилизации и роста численности населения в 2000-х годах. Анализируется влияние пандемии COVID-19 на развитие демографических процессов и связанных с ними показателей социальной сферы. Определено, что наблюдаемое демографическое развитие радикально меняет существующую модель воспроизводства населения. Анализ тенденций демографических процессов и их причинно-следственных связей с социально-экономическими процессами служит основой для разработки прогнозов численности и структуры населения в будущем. Для прогнозирования использовались методы экстраполяции и возрастного сдвига.

The economic development of any country depends on the nature of demographic processes. The size of the population and its composition directly affect the scale of production, demographic processes – fertility, mortality, migration – largely depend on the socio-economic situation and the living standard of the population. The research aims to assess the current state of demographic processes in Kazakhstan and forecast their development until 2050. The article gives a brief description of the demographic development over the years of independence, identifying 3 main stages different in their dynamics and background socio-economic conditions, starting with the demographic crisis of the 1990s with the threat of depopulation to stabilization and population growth in the 2000s. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of demographic processes and related indicators of the social sphere is analyzed. It is determined that the observed demographic development radically changes the existing model of population reproduction. The analysis of trends in demographic processes, and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes serve as the basis for the development of forecasts of the number and structure of the population in the future. The methods of extrapolation and the age shift were used for forecasting.

демографиянаселениерострождаемостьпрогнозированиеdemographypopulationgrowthfertilityforecastingThe study was conducted within the framework of the Program of targeted funding of the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan IRN BR10965247 “Study of factors, features and dynamics of demographic processes, migration, urbanization in Kazakhstan, development of digital maps and forecasts”.ReferencesPreston S.H., Vierboom Y.C. The Changing Age Distribution of the United States: Population and Development Review. 2021, no. 47(2), pp. 527–539. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12386.Preston S.H., Vierboom Y.C. (2021) The Changing Age Distribution of the United States: Population and Development Review, no. 47(2), pp. 527–539. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12386. (In English).Chulanova Z.K. External migration of the population of Kazakhstan during the years of independence: The scientific heritage. 2021, no. 2(76), pp.37–45. DOI: 10.24412/9215-0365-2021-76-2-37-45Chulanova Z.K. (2021) External migration of the population of Kazakhstan during the years of independence: The scientific heritage, no. 2(76), pp.37–45. DOI: 10.24412/9215-0365-2021-76-2-37-45/ (In English).Pilkauskas N.V., Amorim M., Dunifon R.E. Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870-2018: Demography. 2020, no. 57(2), pp. 1–28. Doi: 10.1007/s13524-020-00920-5.Pilkauskas N.V., Amorim M., Dunifon R.E. (2020) Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870-2018: Demography, no. 57(2), pp. 1–28. Doi: 10.1007/s13524-020-00920-5. (In English).Conti S., Oliveira dos Santos F., Wolters A. A Novel Method for Identifying Care Home Residents in England: A Validation Study: International Journal of Population Data Science. 2021, no. 5(4), pp.16–20. DOI: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1666.Conti S., Oliveira dos Santos F., Wolters A. (2021) A Novel Method for Identifying Care Home Residents in England: A Validation Study: International Journal of Population Data Science, no. 5(4), pp.16–20. DOI: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1666. (In English).Keyfitz N. Applied Mathematical Demography. Wiley: New York, 1977.Keyfitz N. (1977) Applied Mathematical Demography. Wiley: New York. (In English).Keyfitz N. Foreword. In W. Lutz (Ed.). The future population of the world: What can we assume today? (Revised Edition). London: Earthscan, 1996. doi:10.4324/9781315066929Keyfitz N. (1996) Foreword. In W. Lutz (Ed.). The future population of the world: What can we assume today? (Revised Edition). London: Earthscan, doi:10.4324/9781315066929. (In English).Alho J.M. Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend mortality: Mathematical Population Studies. 1991, no. 2, pp. 53–67. DOI: 10.1080/08898489109525323.Alho J.M. (1991) Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend mortality: Mathematical Population Studies, no. 2, pp. 53–67. DOI: 10.1080/08898489109525323. (In English).Heligman L, Pollard J.H. The Age Pattern of Mortality: Journal of the Institute of Actuaries. 1980, no. 107, pp. 49–75.Heligman L, Pollard J.H. (1980) The Age Pattern of Mortality: Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, no. 107, pp. 49–75. (In English).Lee R.D., Carter L.R. Modelling and forecasting U.S. mortality: Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1992, no. 87, pp. 659–671. doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265.Lee R.D., Carter L.R. (1992) Modelling and forecasting U.S. mortality: Journal of the American Statistical Association, no. 87, pp. 659–671. doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265. (In English).Mcnown R., Rogers A., Little J. Simplicity and complexity in extrapolatwe population forecasting models: Mathematical Population Studies. 1994, no. 5, pp. 235–257. doi:10.1080/08898489509525404.Mcnown R., Rogers A., Little J. (1994) Simplicity and complexity in extrapolatwe population forecasting models: Mathematical Population Studies, no. 5, pp. 235–257. doi:10.1080/08898489509525404. (In English).Booth H. Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review: International Journal of Forecasting. 2006, no. 2, pp. 547–581. doi:10.1016/J.IJFORECAST.2006.04.001.Booth H. (2006) Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review: International Journal of Forecasting, no. 2, pp. 547–581. doi:10.1016/J.IJFORECAST.2006.04.001. (In English).Smith S.K., Tayman J., Swanson D.A. Overview of the cohort-component method. A practitioner’s guide to state and local population projections. New York, London: Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg, 2013.Smith S.K.,TaymanJ.,SwansonD.A.(2013)Overviewof thecohort-componentmethod.Apractitioner’s guide to state and local population projections. New York, London: Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg. (In English).Thatkar P., Pawar D.D., Ingale K.Y. Cohort-component method for projection of population of India: International Journal of Scientific Research. 2018, no. 7(6), pp. 387–389.Thatkar P., Pawar D.D., Ingale K.Y. (2018) Cohort-component method for projection of population of India: International Journal of Scientific Research, no. 7(6), pp. 387–389. (In English).Riiman V., Wilson A., Milewicz R. Comparing artificial neural network and cohort-component models for population forecasts: Population Review. 2019, no. 58(2), pp. 100–116. DOI: 10.1353/prv.2019.0008.Riiman V., Wilson A., Milewicz R. (2019) Comparing artificial neural network and cohort-component models for population forecasts: Population Review, no. 58(2), pp. 100–116. DOI: 10.1353/prv.2019.0008. (In English).Архангельский В.Н., Елизаров В.В. Демографические прогнозы в современной России: анализ результатов и выбор гипотез. Научные труды: Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН. – 2016. – №1. – С. 524–544.Arhangel'skij V.N., Elizarov V.V. (2016) Demograficheskie prognozy v sovremennoj Rossii: analiz rezul'tatov i vybor gipotez. Nauchnye trudy: Institut narodnohozjajstvennogo prognozirovanija RAN. No. 1. P. 524–544. (In Russian).Юзаева Ю.Р. Прогноз численности населения Оренбургской области в разрезе городских и сельских территорий методом «возрастного продвижения» // Экономика, статистика и информатика. Вестник УМО. – 2014. – №5. – С. 155–160.Juzaeva Ju.R. (2014) Prognoz chislennosti naselenija Orenburgskoj oblasti v razreze gorodskih i sel'skih territorij metodom «vozrastnogo prodvizhenija» // Jekonomika, statistika i informatika. Vestnik UMO. No. 5. P. 155–160. (In Russian).Alai D., Arnold-Gaille S., Sherris M. Modelling cause-of-death mortality and the impact of causeelimination: Annals of Actuarial Science. 2015, no. 9(1), pp. 167–186. Doi:10.1017/S174849951400027X.Alai D., Arnold-Gaille S., Sherris M. (2015) Modelling cause-of-death mortality and the impact of cause-elimination: Annals of Actuarial Science, no. 9(1), pp. 167–186. Doi:10.1017/S174849951400027X. (In English).Кошанов А.К., Чуланова З.К. Некоторые подходы к оценке состояния человеческого капитала (на примере Казахстана) // Вестник Московского университета. Серия 6: Экономика. – 2021. – № 4. – С. 49–72. doi.org/10.38050/01300105202143.Koshanov A.K., Chulanova Z.K. (2021) Nekotorye podhody k ocenke sostojanija chelovecheskogo kapitala (na primere Kazahstana) // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Serija 6: Jekonomika. No. 4. P. 49–72. doi.org/10.38050/01300105202143. (In Russian).Brian C., O’Neill D., Balk M.B., Markos E. A Guide to Global Population Projections: Demographic Research. 2001, no. 4(8), pp. 203–288. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8Brian C., O’Neill D., Balk M.B., Markos E. (2001) A Guide to Global Population Projections: Demographic Research. no. 4(8), pp. 203–288. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8/ (In English).Bassett M.T., Chen J.T., Krieger N. Variation in racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality by age in the United States: A cross-sectional study: Plos Medicine. 2020, no. 17(10), pp. 32–42. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003402.Bassett M.T., Chen J.T., Krieger N. (2020) Variation in racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality by age in the United States: A cross-sectional study: Plos Medicine, no. 17(10), pp. 32–42. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003402. (In English).Balbo N., Kashnitsky I., Melegaro A., Meslé F., Mills M. C., Valk D. Demography and the Coronavirus Pandemic. Population and Policy. Brief, no. 25. Berlin: Population Europe, 2020.Balbo N., Kashnitsky I., Melegaro A., Meslé F., Mills M. C., Valk D. (2020) Demography and the Coronavirus Pandemic. Population and Policy. Brief, no. 25. Berlin: Population Europe. (In English).Dasgupta S., Emmerling J. COVID-19 lockdown led to an unprecedented increase in inequality: Research Square. 2021. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-191155/v1.Dasgupta S., Emmerling J. (2021) COVID-19 lockdown led to an unprecedented increase in inequality: Research Square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-191155/v1. (In English).Li G., Wang F., Quan S.S. The impact of COVID-19 on the protection of rural traditional village: Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems. 2020, no. 39(6), pp. 8685-8693. DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-189264.Li G., Wang F., Quan S.S. (2020) The impact of COVID-19 on the protection of rural traditional village: Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, no. 39(6), pp. 8685-8693. DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-189264. (In English).Қазақстан Республикасы стратегиялық жоспарлау және реформалар жөніндегі агенттігінің ұлттық статистика бюросы. URL: https://www.stat.gov.kz/ (өтініш берілген күн: 15.05.2022).Qazaqstan Respublikasy strategialyq josparlau jäne reformalar jönındegı agenttıgınıñ ūlttyq statistika bürosy. URL: https://www.stat.gov.kz/ (ötınış berılgen kün: 15.05.2022). (In Kazakh).

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.