turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2024-1-2-362-377turan-4086Research ArticleТРИБУНА МОЛОДОГО ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯPLATFORM OF YOUNG RESEARCHERМетодология форсайта как основа стратегического планирования развития сельских территорийForesight methodology as a basis for strategic planning for rural areas developmenthttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6837-3338ШинтаеваС. С.ShintayevaS. S.

докторант

г. Астана

PhD student

Astana

saule.shintayeva@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3034-9169ГриценкоГ. М.GritcenkoG. M.

д.э.н.,

г. Краснообск

d.e.s., professor

Krasnoobsk

gritcenko_galina_milenium@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0559-5608ЖумашеваС. Т.ZhumashevaS. T.

к.э.н., доцент

г. Алматы

c.e.s., associate professor

Almaty

torehanoba@mail.ruУниверситет «Туран-Астана»КазахстанTuran-Astana UniversityKazakhstanСибНИИЭСХ СФНЦА РАНРоссияSibNIIESKH SFSC RASRussian FederationКазахский НИИ экономики АПК и развития сельских территорийКазахстанKazakh Research Institute of Agricultural Economics and Rural DevelopmentKazakhstan20240207202402362377Copyright © Шинтаева С.С., Гриценко Г.М., Жумашева С.Т., 20242024Шинтаева С.С., Гриценко Г.М., Жумашева С.Т.Shintayeva S.S., Gritcenko G.M., Zhumasheva S.T.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/4086

Современная методология прогнозирования достаточно гибкая и многогранная. Инструменты форсайта могут широко применяться на разных иерархических уровнях управления. Использование системного подхода в сочетании с технологиями форсайта позволяет разрабатывать стратегические планы развития сельских территорий с точки зрения улучшения их экономической и социальной составляющей. Цель исследования – установить научное обоснование использования методологии форсайта в стратегическом планировании развития сельских территорий. Научная новизна исследования определяется разработкой алгоритма стратегического планирования развития сельской местности на основе методологии форсайта и формированием комплекса практических рекомендаций по использованию инструментов форсайта на региональном уровне управления в сельской местности. В нашем исследовании мы последовательно анализировали форсайт-проекты и программы, используемые в прогнозировании управления и развития села. В исследовании представлен форсайт-алгоритм стратегического планирования развития села и механизм его реализации на местном уровне. Основные составляющие процедуры сформированы в результате комплексного форсайт-анализа альтернативных сценариев развития села. Мы резюмировали, что форсайт-технологии необходимо использовать как системный инструмент формирования и реализации стратегии устойчивого развития сельских территорий. Основные результаты исследования включают: обобщение опыта форсайт-исследований развития сельских территорий; разработку алгоритма стратегического планирования развития сельских территорий на основе методологии форсайта; формирование альтернативных сценариев развития сельских территорий на региональном уровне. Методические подходы и положения стратегического планирования развития села, разработанные с использованием методологии форсайта, могут быть использованы при создании дорожных карт и стратегических планов социально-экономического развития сельских территорий.

Modern forecasting methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. Foresight tools can be widely used at different hierarchical levels of management. The use of a systemic approach in combination with foresight technologies makes it possible to develop strategic plans for the development of rural areas in terms of improving their economic and social component. The purpose of the study is to establish the scientific basis for the use of Foresight methodology in strategic planning for the development of rural areas. The scientific novelty of the research is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development on the basis of foresight methodology and the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the regional level of management in rural areas. The article analyzes Foresight projects and programs used in forecasting rural management and development. The study presents a Foresight algorithm for strategic planning of rural development and a mechanism for its implementation at the local level. The main components of the procedure were formed as a result of a comprehensive Foresight analysis of alternative rural development scenarios. Foresight technologies must be used as a systematic tool for the formation and implementation of a strategy for sustainable development of rural areas. The main results of the study include: generalization of the experience of Foresight studies of rural development; development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on Foresight methodology; formation of alternative scenarios for the development of rural areas at the regional level. Methodological approaches and provisions for strategic planning of rural development, developed using the Foresight methodology, can be used in creating road maps and strategic plans for the socio-economic development of rural areas.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.