turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2025-1-3-171-186turan-4837Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА: ИСТОРИЯ, ТЕОРИЯ, ПРАКТИКАECONOMY: HISTORY, THEORY, PRACTICEЭконометрическая оценка детерминант продовольственных цен: кейс КазахстанаEconometric assessment of food price determinants: the case of Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9167-8076ДуйсенбековаА. А.DuisenbekovaA. A.

постдокторант

Астана

postdoctoral researcher

Astana

aigerim.duisenbekova95@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4956-8516ХамульчукК. М.HamulczukM.

д.э.н., доцент

Варшава

dr.hab., assistant professor

Warsaw

mariusz_hamulczuk@sggw.edu.plhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4717-7191ТлеужановаМ. А.TleuzhanovaM. A.

к.э.н., ассоциированный профессор

Алматы

c.e.s, associate professor

Almaty

manatzhankz@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4977-3210ДаниловкаА.DanilowskaA.

д.э.н., профессор

Варшава

dr.hab., professor

Warsaw

alina_danilowska@sggw.edu.plАстана IT университетКазахстанAstana IT UniversityKazakhstanВаршавский университет естественных наукПольшаWarsaw University of Life SciencesPolandSatbayev университет; Международный инженерно-технологический университетКазахстанSatbayev University; International Engineering and Technological UniversityKazakhstan20250610202503171186Copyright © Дуйсенбекова А.А., Хамульчук К.М., Тлеужанова М.А., Даниловка А., 20252025Дуйсенбекова А.А., Хамульчук К.М., Тлеужанова М.А., Даниловка А.Duisenbekova A.A., Hamulczuk M., Tleuzhanova M.A., Danilowska A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/4837

Данная научная статья посвящена изучению влияния ключевых внешнеэкономических факторов на продовольственную безопасность Казахстана с особым акцентом на динамику внутренних цен на продовольствие в контексте глобальных экономических колебаний. Цель исследования заключается в выявлении и эмпирическом анализе значимых внешних экономических детерминант, оказывающих влияние на состояние продовольственной безопасности Казахстана, а также в разработке научно обоснованных рекомендаций для органов государственного управления. Методология исследования включает количественные эконометрические методы, в частности регрессионный анализ с использованием метода наименьших квадратов (OLS), корреляционный анализ и метод главных компонент (PCA) на основе ежегодных статистических данных за 2010–2024 гг. Исследование носит комплексный характер и охватывает такие макроэкономические показатели, как национальный индекс цен на продовольствие, обменный курс, мировые цены на продовольствие, ВВП на душу населения и государственные расходы на сельское хозяйство. Основные результаты исследования показывают, что мировые цены на продовольствие и уровень доходов населения значительно влияют на стабильность внутренних цен на продукты питания, тогда как прямые краткосрочные эффекты от колебаний обменного курса и государственных расходов на сельское хозяйство выражены статистически менее отчетливо. Анализ статистических данных подчеркивает подверженность Казахстана глобальным экономическим шокам и логистическим сбоям, акцентируя уязвимость страны ввиду ее зависимости от импорта и волатильности национальной валюты. Научная новизна статьи заключается в системном анализе внешнеэкономических детерминант продовольственной безопасности Казахстана, аспект, который ранее был недостаточно подробно изучен. Практическая значимость данного исследования заключается в том, что его результаты могут быть использованы органами государственного управления и заинтересованными сторонами для разработки адаптивных стратегий повышения устойчивости и стабильности системы продовольственной безопасности Казахстана в условиях нарастающей глобальной неопределенности.

This research article examines the impact of key external economic factors on food security in Kazakhstan, particularly focusing on the dynamics of domestic food prices in relation to global economic fluctuations. The purpose of the study is to identify and empirically analyze significant external economic determinants influencing Kazakhstan’s food security, providing evidence-based insights for policymakers. The research methodology includes quantitative econometric methods, specifically ordinary least squares regression, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis, utilizing annual statistical data from 2010 to 2024. The study is comprehensive and covers macroeconomic indicators such as the national Food Price Index, exchange rates, global food prices, GDP per capita, and government agricultural expenditures. The main results of the study show that global food prices and national income levels significantly influence domestic food price stability, whereas the direct short-term effects of currency fluctuations and government agricultural expenditures are statistically less pronounced. The analysis of statistical data highlights Kazakhstan’s susceptibility to global economic shocks and logistical disruptions, underscoring the country’s vulnerability due to import dependency and currency volatility. The study contributes to the literature by systematically addressing external economic determinants of food security in the context of Kazakhstan, an aspect that remains relatively underexplored in previous research. The practical significance of this research lies in its capacity to inform policymakers and stakeholders on adaptive strategies for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of Kazakhstan’s food security framework in the face of increasing global uncertainties

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.