turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2025-1-3-346-358turan-4865Research ArticleТРИБУНА МОЛОДОГО ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯPLATFORM OF YOUNG RESEARCHERРегуляторные механизмы декарбонизации энергетического сектора в контексте достижения углеродной нейтральности в КазахстанеRegulatory mechanisms for decarbonization of the energy sector in the context of achieving carbon neutrality in Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-0996-3687НыгыметовГ. С.NygymetovG. S.

докторант

г. Алматы

PhD candidate

Almaty

gansak1983@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2041-3542СмагуловаГ. С.SmagulovaG. S.

к.э.н., доцент

г. Алматы

с.e.s., associate professor

Almaty

gsmagulova_72@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9992-4005СансызбаеваГ. Н.SansyzbayevaG. N.

д.э.н., профессор

г. Алматы

с.e.s., professor

Almaty

gns1981@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1054-8008ГабелашвилиК. Р.GabelashviliK. R.

PhD, ст. преподаватель

г. Алматы

PhD, senior lecturer

Almaty

gkakha@mail.ruКазахский национальный университет им. аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstanАлматинский университет энергетики и связи им. Г. ДаукееваКазахстанG. Daukeev Almaty University of Power Engineering and TelecommunicationsKazakhstan20250610202503346358Copyright © Ныгыметов Г.С., Смагулова Г.С., Сансызбаева Г.Н., Габелашвили К.Р., 20252025Ныгыметов Г.С., Смагулова Г.С., Сансызбаева Г.Н., Габелашвили К.Р.Nygymetov G.S., Smagulova G.S., Sansyzbayeva G.N., Gabelashvili K.R.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/4865

Целью данной статьи является анализ механизмов декарбонизации энергетического сектора в условиях достижения углеродной нейтральности в Казахстане. В работе представлены результаты исследования по трансформации энергетической системы страны, на которую приходится более 2/3 национальных выбросов парниковых газов. Дан анализ регуляторных механизмов декарбонизации энергетического сектора и разработаны рекомендации по их совершенствованию для достижения углеродной нейтральности к 2060 г. Рассмотрены источники инвестирования для трансформации энергетического баланса и ускорения темпов развития возобновляемых источников энергии (ВИЭ). Представлен анализ тарифной политики, системы углеродного регулирования, механизмов поддержки ВИЭ и сравнительный анализ с международной практикой. Проведена оценка достижения углеродной нейтральности по регионам Казахстана с учетом экономических инструментов, имеющих место в стратегической программе по состоянию на 2023 г. Статья подготовлена в рамках реализации Парижского соглашения для участия в СОР-29 (г. Баку, ноябрь 2024). Научная значимость работы заключается в комплексном анализе регуляторных механизмов с учетом международного опыта и разработке адаптированных рекомендаций. Практическая ценность состоит в обосновании инвестиций в размере 318, млрд долл. США для трансформации энергобаланса, выявлении отставания Казахстана от развитых стран по доле ВИЭ (7,0% против 42% в ЕС) и цене на углерод (2–5 долл./т против 80–90 долл./т в ЕС), а также в рекомендациях по ускорению тарифной реформы, сокращению бесплатных квот на 4–5% ежегодно, развитию поддержки ВИЭ и обеспечению справедливого перехода. Результаты способствуют реализации национальных климатических обязательств и устойчивому развитию

The purpose of this article is to analyze the mechanisms for decarbonizing the energy sector in the context of achieving carbon neutrality in Kazakhstan. The study presents the results of research on the transformation of the country’s energy system, which accounts for more than 2/3 of national greenhouse gas emissions. An analysis of regulatory mechanisms for decarbonizing the energy sector is provided, and recommendations for their improvement to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 are developed. Sources of investment for transforming the energy balance and accelerating the development of renewable energy sources (RES) are considered. An analysis of tariff policy, the carbon regulation system, RES support mechanisms, and a comparative analysis with international practice are presented. An assessment of achieving carbon neutrality across Kazakhstan’s regions is conducted, taking into account economic instruments in the strategic program as of 2023. The article is prepared within the framework of implementing the Paris Agreement for participation in COP-29 (Baku, November 2024). The scientific significance of the work lies in a comprehensive analysis of regulatory mechanisms considering international experience and the development of adapted recommendations. The practical value consists in substantiating investments of $318.1 billion for energy balance transformation, identifying Kazakhstan’s lag behind developed countries in the share of RES (7.0% vs. 42% in the EU) and carbon price ($2–5/t vs. $80–90/t in the EU), as well as recommendations for accelerating tariff reform, reducing free quotas by 4–5% annually, developing comprehensive RES support, and ensuring a just transition. The results contribute to the implementation of national climate commitments and sustainable development

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.