turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-1-229-252turan-5226Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА: ИСТОРИЯ, ТЕОРИЯ, ПРАКТИКАECONOMY: HISTORY, THEORY, PRACTICEОценка взаимосвязи между экономическим ростом, потреблением энергии и загрязнением окружающей среды в странах центральной АзииAssessment of the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution in Сentral Asian countrieshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1054-8008ГабелашвилиК. Р.GabelashviliK. R.

PhD, асcоциированный профессор 

г. Алматы 

PhD, associate professor 

Almaty 

gkakha@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-9434-4601НурмуратоваЛ. С.NurmuratovaL. S.

м.э.н., ст. преподаватель 

г. Алматы 

m.e.s., senior lecturer 

Almaty 

nlaura@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0679-3059ТулегеноваС. К.TulegenovaS. K.

м.э.н., ст. преподаватель 

г. Алматы 

m.e.s., senior lecturer 

Almaty 

saule_kuanyshkyzy@mail.ruАлматинский университет энергетики и связи им. Г. ДаукееваКазахстанAlmaty University of Energy and Communications named after Gumarbek DaukeyevKazakhstan20262503202601229252Copyright © Габелашвили К.Р., Нурмуратова Л.С., Тулегенова С.К., 20262026Габелашвили К.Р., Нурмуратова Л.С., Тулегенова С.К.Gabelashvili K.R., Nurmuratova L.S., Tulegenova S.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5226

В странах Центральной Азии существует сложная взаимосвязь между экономическим ростом, потреблением энергии и загрязнением окружающей среды. Увеличение экономического производства часто сопровождается ростом потребления энергии, что, в свою очередь, может привести к увеличению выбросов загрязняющих веществ. Однако существуют возможности для разрыва этой связи, например, за счет повышения энергоэффективности и перехода на возобновляемые источники энергии. С учетом экологических целей, заявленных на разных уровнях мирового сообщества, основная цель данного исследования заключается в проверке взаимосвязи между экономическим ростом, выбросами парниковых газов и потреблением энергии – так называемой модели «3E». Это позволяет разрабатывать рекомендации для разных стран. Анализ стран Центральной Азии (ЦА) с использованием панельных данных и временных рядов за период 1990–2024 гг. выявил значительные изменения во взаимосвязи между этими тремя переменными, особенно в результате пандемии COVID-19. Вследствие этого некоторым странам удалось достичь разъединения выбросов и экономического роста. Тем не менее сохраняющиеся углеродоемкие модели потребления энергии в странах Центральной Азии остаются серьезным препятствием, подчеркивая необходимость активизации усилий по внедрению зеленых технологий и переходу к устойчивому экономическому развитию.

In Central Asian countries, there is a complex relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and environmental pollution. An increase in economic production is often accompanied by an increase in energy consumption, which, in turn, can lead to an increase in pollutant emissions. However, there are opportunities to break this link, for example, by increasing energy efficiency and switching to renewable energy sources. Taking into account the environmental goals stated at different levels of the global community, the main purpose of this study is to test the relationship between economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption – the so-called “3E” model. This allows us to develop recommendations for different countries. An analysis of the Central Asian (CA) countries using panel data and time series for the period 1990–2024 revealed significant changes in the relationship between these three variables, especially as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, some countries have managed to achieve decoupling of emissions and economic growth. Nevertheless, the persistence of carbon-intensive energy consumption patterns in Central Asian countries remains a major obstacle, underscoring the need to step up efforts to introduce green technologies and transition to sustainable economic development.

экономический роствыбросы парниковых газовструктурные сдвигипотребление энергиипанельные данныерегрессияструктурные разрывыeconomic growthgreenhouse gas emissionsstructural breaksenergy consumptionpanel dataregressionstructural breaksReferencesSobirov Y., Tukhtamurodov A., Karimov M., Bekjanov D., Avezov M. The impact of energy consumption, FDI, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Central Asia. Empirical evidence from panel ARDL // E3S Web Conf. 2023, no. 449, pp. 04002. URL: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202344904002Sobirov Y., Tukhtamurodov A., Karimov M., Bekjanov D., Avezov M. (2023) The impact of energy consumption, FDI, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Central Asia. Empirical evidence from panel ARDL // E3S Web Conf, no. 449, pp. 04002. URL: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202344904002 (In English).Kurmanov N., Kenzhin Z., Aldabergenov N., Satbayeva A., Mussabalina D. Sustainable Development Challenges in Central Asia: Empirical Evidence on the CO2-Growth-Energy-Employment Nexus // International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2025, no. 15(6), pp. 371–380. URL: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.21322Kurmanov N., Kenzhin Z., Aldabergenov N., Satbayeva A., Mussabalina D. (2025) Sustainable Development Challenges in CentralAsia: Empirical Evidence on the CO2-Growth-Energy-Employment Nexus // International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, no. 15(6), рр. 371–380. URL: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.21322 (In English).Essadik E., Khalifa J. Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Socio-Economic Drivers Nexus: Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries // International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment. 2024, no. 9(2), pp. 32–50. URL: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20240902.11Essadik E., Khalifa J. (2024) Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Socio-Economic Drivers Nexus: Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries // International Journal of Economy, Energy and Environment, no. 9(2), рр. 32–50. URL: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijeee.20240902.11 (In English).Turmunkh B.E. Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in a Developing Country: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan // Asian Development Perspectives. 2020, no. 11(2), pp. 106–121. URL: https://doi.org/10.22681/ADP.2020.11.2.106Turmunkh B.E. (2020) Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in a Developing Country: Empirical Evidence from Kazakhstan // Asian Development Perspectives, no. 11(2), рр. 106–121. URL: https://doi.org/10.22681/ADP.2020.11.2.106 (In English).Caporin M., Cooray A., Kuziboev B., Yusubov I. New insights on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for Central Asia // Empirical Economics. 2024, no. 66(5), pp. 2335–2354. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02520-9Caporin M., Cooray A., Kuziboev B., Yusubov I. (2024) New insights on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for Central Asia // Empirical Economics, no. 66(5), рр. 2335–2354. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-023-02520-9 (In English).Nguyen A.T. The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Central Asia // Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics. 2019, no. 12(24), pp. 1–15. URL: https://doi.org/10.17015/ejbe.2019.024.01Nguyen A.T. (2019) The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Evidence from Central Asia // Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, no. 12(24), рр. 1–15. URL: https://doi.org/10.17015/ejbe.2019.024.01 (In English).Wang J., Azam W. Natural resource scarcity, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total greenhouse gas emissions in top emitting countries // Geoscience Frontiers. 2024, no. 15(2), pp. 101757. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101757Wang J., Azam W. (2024) Natural resource scarcity, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total greenhouse gas emissions in top emitting countries // Geoscience Frontiers, no. 15(2), рр. 101757. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101757 (In English).Francés G.E., Marín-Quemada J.M., González E.S.M. RES and risk: Renewable energy’s contribution to energy security. A portfolio-based approach // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2013, no. 26, pp. 549–559. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.06.015Francés G.E., Marín-Quemada J.M., González E.S.M. (2013) RES and risk: Renewable energy’s contribution to energy security. A portfolio-based approach // Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, no. 26, рр. 549–559. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.06.015 (In English).Ouyang X., Li Q., Du K. How does environmental regulation promote technological innovations in the industrial sector? Evidence from Chinese provincial panel data // Energy Policy. 2020, no. 139, pp. 111310. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111310Ouyang X., Li Q., Du K. (2020) How does environmental regulation promote technological innovations in the industrial sector? Evidence from Chinese provincial panel data // Energy Policy, no. 139, рр. 111310. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111310 (In English).González-Álvarez M.A., Montañés A. CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Determining the stability of the 3E relationship // Economic Modelling. 2023, no. 121, pp. 106195. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106195González-Álvarez M.A., Montañés A. (2023) CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Determining the stability of the 3E relationship // Economic Modelling, no. 121, рр. 106195. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106195 (In English).Rogelj J., Huppmann D., Krey V., Riahi K., Clarke L., Gidden M., Nicholls Z, Meinshausen M. A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal // Nature. 2019, no. 573, pp. 357–363. URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4Rogelj J., Huppmann D., Krey V., Riahi K., Clarke L., Gidden M., Nicholls Z, Meinshausen M. (2019) A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal // Nature, no. 573, pp. 357–363. URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4 (In English).Karavias Y., Tzavalis E. Generalized fixed-T panel unit root tests // Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. 2019, no. 46, pp. 1227–1251. URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12392Karavias Y., Tzavalis E. (2019) Generalized fixed-T panel unit root tests // Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, no. 46, pp. 1227–1251. URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12392 (In English).Bai J., Perron P. Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes // Econometrica. 1998, no. 66(1), pp. 47–78. URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540Bai J., Perron P. (1998) Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes // Econometrica, no. 66(1), pp. 47–78. URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540 (In English).Hubacek K., Chen X., Feng K., Wiedmann T., Shan Y. Evidence of decoupling consumption-based CO2 emissions from economic growth // Advances in Applied Energy. 2021, no. 4, pp. 100074. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100074Hubacek K., Chen X., Feng K., Wiedmann T., Shan Y. (2021) Evidence of decoupling consumptionbased CO2 emissions from economic growth // Advances in Applied Energy, no. 4, pp. 100074. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2021.100074 (In English).Cohen G., Jalles J.T., Loungani P., Marto R. The long-run decoupling of emissions and output: Evidence from the largest emitters // Energy Policy. 2018, no. 118, pp. 58–68. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.028Cohen G., Jalles J.T., Loungani P., Marto R. (2018) The long-run decoupling of emissions and output: Evidence from the largest emitters // Energy Policy, no. 118, pp. 58–68. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.028 (In English).Freire-González J., Padilla Rosa E., Raymond J.L. World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO2 emissions // Scientific Reports. 2024, no. 14, pp. 20480. URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-71101-2Freire-González J., Padilla Rosa E., Raymond J.L. (2024) World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO2 emissions // Scientific Reports, no. 14, pp. 20480. URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-71101-2 (In English).Ehigiamusoe K.U., Lean H.H., Smyth R. The moderating role of energy consumption in the carbon emissions-income nexus in middle-income countries // Applied Energy. 2020, no. 261, pp. 114215. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12186-wEhigiamusoe K.U., Lean H.H., Smyth R. (2020) The moderating role of energy consumption in the carbon emissions-income nexus in middle-income countries // Applied Energy, no. 261, pp. 114215. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12186-w (In English).Balcilar M., Bekun F.V., Uzuner G. Revisiting the economic growth and electricity consumption nexus in Pakistan // Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2019, no. 26, pp. 12158–12170. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04598-0Balcilar M., Bekun F.V., Uzuner G. (2019) Revisiting the economic growth and electricity consumption nexus in Pakistan // Environmental Science and Pollution Research, no. 26, pp. 12158–12170. URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04598-0 (In English).Cai Y., Sam C.Y., Chang T. Nexus between clean energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions // Journal of Cleaner Production. 2018, no. 182, pp. 1001–1011. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.035Cai Y., Sam C.Y., Chang T. (2018) Nexus between clean energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions // Journal of Cleaner Production, no. 182, pp. 1001–1011. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.035 (In English).ВВП на душу населения по ППС (в постоянных международных долларах 2017 года) // База данных Всемирного банка. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=1W (accessed: 01.07.2025)VVP na dushu naselenija po PPS (v postojannyh mezhdunarodnyh dollarah 2017 goda) // Baza dannyh Vsemirnogo banka. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=1W (data obrashhenija: 01.07.2025) (In Russian).Выбросы парниковых газов на душу населения в эквиваленте // База данных World in Data. URL: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions (accessed: 01.07.2025)Vybrosy parnikovyh gazov na dushu naselenija v jekvivalente CO_2 // Baza dannyh World in Data. URL: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions (data obrashhenija: 01.07.2025) (In Russian).Потребление первичной энергии на душу населения (кВт.ч/чел.) // База данных World in Data. URL: https://ourworldindata.org/energy (accessed: 01.07.2025)Potreblenie pervichnoj jenergii na dushu naselenija (kVt.ch/chel.) // Baza dannyh World in Data. URL: https://ourworldindata.org/energy (data obrashhenija: 01.07.2025) (In Russian).Granger C.W., Newbold P. Spurious regressions in econometrics // Journal of Econometrics. 1974, no. 2, pp. 111–120. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7Granger C.W., Newbold P. (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics // Journal of Econometrics, no. 2, pp. 111–120. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7 (In English).Dickey D.A., Fuller W.A. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root // Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1979, no. 74(366), pp. 427–431. URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348Dickey D.A., Fuller W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root // Journal of the American Statistical Association, no. 74(366), pp. 427–431. URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348 (In English).Perron P. The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis // Econometrica. 1989, no. 57(6), pp. 1361–1401. URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712Perron P. (1989) The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis // Econometrica, no. 57(6), pp. 1361–1401. URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712 (In English).Zivot E., Andrews D.W.K. Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unitroot hypothesis // Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 2002, no. 20, pp. 25–44. URL: https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410372Zivot E., Andrews D.W.K. (2002) Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis // Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, no. 20, pp. 25–44. URL: https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410372 (In English).Banerjee A., Lumsdaine R.L., Stock J.H. Recursive and sequential tests of the unit-root and trend-break hypotheses: Theory and international evidence // Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 1992, no. 10, pp. 271–287. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509905Banerjee A., Lumsdaine R.L., Stock J.H. (1992) Recursive and sequential tests of the unit-root and trend-break hypotheses: Theory and international evidence // Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, no. 10, pp. 271–287. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509905 (In English).Lumsdaine R.L., Papell D.H. Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis // The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1997, no. 79(2), pp. 212–218. URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/003465397556791Lumsdaine R.L., Papell D.H. (1997) Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis // The Review of Economics and Statistics, no. 79(2), pp. 212–218. URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/003465397556791 (In English).Ditzen J., Karavias Y., Westerlund J. Testing and estimating structural breaks in time series and panel data in Stata // Econometrics. 2021, no. 2110, pp. 14550. URL: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2110.14550Ditzen J., Karavias Y., Westerlund J. (2021) Testing and estimating structural breaks in time series and panel data in Stata // Econometrics, no. 2110, pp. 14550. URL: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2110.14550 (In English).Pesaran M.H., Smith R. Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels // Journal of Econometrics. 1995, no. 68, pp. 79–113. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-FPesaran M.H., Smith R. (1995) Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels // Journal of Econometrics, no. 68, pp. 79–113. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-F (In English).

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.