turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-1-395-408turan-5237Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА: ИСТОРИЯ, ТЕОРИЯ, ПРАКТИКАECONOMY: HISTORY, THEORY, PRACTICEАнализ основных факторов, влияющих на изменение цен на рынке жилья в сфере строительства (на примере города Алматы)Analysis of the main factors influencing price changes in the housing market in the construction sector (on the example of the city of Almaty)https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-8499МекебаеваЖ. А.MekebaevaZh. A.

м.м.н., ст. преподаватель 

г. Алматы 

m.m.s., senior lecturer 

Almaty 

zhanat.mekebaeva@narxoz.kzhttps://orcid.org/0009-0005-5002-6107МекебаеваН. А.MekebaevaN. A.

м.э.н. 

г. Алматы 

m.e.s.

Almaty 

nmekebaeva@inbox.kzhttps://orcid.org/0009-0008-6080-1981АнаятоваИ. В.AnayatovaI. V.

м.м.н., педагог-мастер 

г. Алматы 

m.m.s., master teacher 

Almaty 

121219891@mail.ruУниверсиет НархозКазахстанNarxoz UniversityKazakhstanКолледж индустрии туризма и гостеприимстваКазахстанCollege of Tourism and Hospitality IndustryKazakhstan20262503202601395408Copyright © Мекебаева Ж.А., Мекебаева Н.А., Анаятова И.В., 20262026Мекебаева Ж.А., Мекебаева Н.А., Анаятова И.В.Mekebaeva Z.A., Mekebaeva N.A., Anayatova I.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5237

В статье рассматриваются основные факторы, влияющие на стоимость трехкомнатных квартир на рынке жилья. Целью является количественный анализ взаимосвязи между ценами и характеристиками квартир на основе данных по различным районам г. Алматы. Также на основе полученных данных осуществлен прогноз динамики цен на ближайшее будущее. Анализ был проведен в программе Gretl с использованием корреляционного анализа и гедонистической регрессии (OLS). Данные были получены из общедоступных объявлений о продаже и аренде квартир и домов в г. Алматы. Исследование основано на данных крупнейшего мегаполиса Казахстана – г. Алматы. Полученные результаты позволяют глубже понять закономерности формирования цен в сегменте жилой недвижимости и оценить возможные изменения на рынке в будущем. Работа имеет практическую ценность для строительных компаний, аналитиков и потенциальных покупателей. Анализ показал, что основными факторами, влияющими на стоимость трехкомнатных квартир, являются район расположения, общая площадь и техническое состояние жилья. Эконометрический анализ позволил количественно описать взаимосвязь между ценой и указанными параметрами. Построенная регрессионная модель использовалась для прогноза цен на ближайшие годы.

The article examines the main factors influencing the price of three-room apartments in the housing market. The aim of the study is to conduct a quantitative analysis of the relationship between housing prices and apartment characteristics based on data from different districts of the city of Almaty. In addition, a forecast of price dynamics for the near future was developed based on the obtained results. The analysis was carried out in the Gretl software using correlation analysis and hedonic regression (OLS). The data were obtained from publicly available advertisements for the sale and rental of apartments and houses in the city of Almaty. The study is based on data from the largest metropolis of Kazakhstan – the city of Almaty. The results obtained allow for a deeper understanding of the patterns of price formation in the residential real estate segment and make it possible to assess potential changes in the market in the future. The study has practical significance for construction companies, analysts, and potential buyers. The analysis showed that the main factors affecting the price of three-room apartments are the district location, total area, and technical condition of the housing. The econometric analysis made it possible to quantitatively describe the relationship between price and these parameters. The constructed regression model was used to forecast prices for the coming years.

рынок жильястроительная отрасльценаэконометрический анализкорреляциярегрессияпрогнозhousing marketconstruction industrypriceeconometric analysiscorrelationregressionforecastReferencesWang H., Li X., Chen Y. Construction industry development and economic growth: evidence from China // Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2021, vol. 147, no. 5, аrt. 04021033. URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002012Wang H., Li X., Chen Y. (2021) Construction industry development and economic growth: evidence from China // Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, vol. 147, no. 5, art. 04021033. URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002012 (In English)Zhao J., Liu Y., Zhang M. Impact of infrastructure development on residential property prices: a case study // Sustainability. 2020, vol. 12, no. 19. URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198081Zhao J., Liu Y., Zhang M. (2020) Impact of infrastructure development on residential property prices: a case study // Sustainability, vol. 12, no. 19. URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198081 (In English)Li W., Sun Q. Effect of construction material quality on housing price: evidence from emerging markets // Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2022, vol. 180, pp. 106–199. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.Li W., Sun Q. (2022) Effect of construction material quality on housing price: evidence from emerging markets // Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 180, pp. 106–199. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec. (In English)Стексова С.Ю., Бурдун М.Г. Факторы, влияющие на конкурентоспособность строительных предприятий в условиях кризиса // Современные проблемы экономического развития предприятий, отраслей, комплексов, территорий: материалы международной научно-практической конференции: в 2 т. – 2016. – № 2. – С. 77–80.Steksova S.Ju., Burdun M.G. (2016) Faktory, vlijajushhie na konkurentosposobnost’ stroitel’nyh predprijatij v uslovijah krizisa // Sovremennye problemy jekonomicheskogo razvitija predprijatij, otraslej, kompleksov, territorij: materialy mezhdunarodnoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii: v 2 t. No. 2. Р. 77–80. (In Russian)Миронов М.Г. Ваша конкурентоспособность. – Москва, 2013. – С. 77–86.Mironov M.G. (2013) Vasha konkurentosposobnost’. Moskva. Р. 77–86. (In Russian)Жумабаева Д.П., Плеханов С.В. Современные проблемы конкурентоспособности предприятий // Социальные науки. – 2019. – № 1(24). – С. 18–25.Zhumabaeva D.P., Plehanov S.V. (2019) Sovremennye problemy konkurentosposobnosti predprijatij // Social’nye nauki. No. 1(24). Р. 18–25. (In Russian)Галанина Ю.А., Найденков В.И. Новые возможности для ведения бизнеса в условиях цифровой экономики // Наука и общество. – 2018. – № 2(31). – С. 18–22.Galanina Ju.A., Najdenkov V.I. (2018) Novye vozmozhnosti dlja vedenija biznesa v uslovijah cifrovoj jekonomiki // Nauka i obshhestvo. No. 2(31). Р. 18–22. (In Russian)Baimagambetova A., Zhanibekova A., Tussupbekova A. Economic and mathematical modeling of apartment pricing in Almaty // Central Asian Journal of Economics. 2022, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 45–59.Baimagambetova A., Zhanibekova A., Tussupbekova A. (2022) Economic and mathematical modeling of apartment pricing in Almaty // Central Asian Journal of Economics, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 45–59. (In English)Nurbolat A., Tulepbergenov Y., Sarsenbayeva B. Forecasting housing prices using regression models in Kazakhstan // Journal of Economics and Business Research. 2020, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 300–315.Nurbolat A., Tulepbergenov Y., Sarsenbayeva B. (2020) Forecasting housing prices using regression models in Kazakhstan // Journal of Economics and Business Research, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 300–315. (In English)Kumar R., Singh M. Adoption of domestic construction materials and its impact on construction cost efficiency // Construction Management and Economics. 2023, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 125–137. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2022.2056783Kumar R., Singh M. (2023) Adoption of domestic construction materials and its impact on construction cost efficiency // Construction Management and Economics, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 125–137. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2022.2056783 (In English)Zhang L., Xu Y., Huang Y. Reducing import dependency through local building materials innovation: A study on China’s construction sector // Building Research Information. 2019, vol. 47, no. 6, pp. 703–715. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2019.1573467Zhang L., Xu Y., Huang Y. (2019) Reducing import dependency through local building materials innovation: A study on China’s construction sector // Building Research Information, vol. 47, no. 6, pp. 703– 715. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2019.1573467 (In English)Ahmed S., Rahman M., Chowdhury M. Competitive strategies in the construction industry under changing market demands // International Journal of Construction Management. 2021, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 256– 268. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2019.1648917Ahmed S., Rahman M., Chowdhury M. (2021) Competitive strategies in the construction industry under changing market demands // International Journal of Construction Management, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 256–268. URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2019.1648917 (In English)Tlessova E. Housing affordability in Kazakhstan: Economic indicators and regional disparities // Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Economics Series. 2022, vol. 1, pp. 50–63.Tlessova E. (2022) Housing affordability in Kazakhstan: Economic indicators and regional disparities // Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Economics Series, vol. 1, pp. 50–63. (In English)Mukayev M., Shalbolova A. Assessment of housing affordability in Kazakhstan regions // Journal of Economic Research. 2022, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 101–112.Mukayev M., Shalbolova A. (2022) Assessment of housing affordability in Kazakhstan regions // Journal of Economic Research, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 101–112. (In English)Smagulova A., Gabdullina A. Forecasting housing prices in Kazakhstan using ARIMA and Spline Models // Nazarbayev University Repository. 2025. URL: https://nur.nu.edu.kz/items/6789fdb9-d64f-440a-9ae5-72508ce05685 (accessed: 06.01.2026)Smagulova A., Gabdullina A. (2025) Forecasting housing prices in Kazakhstan using ARIMA and Spline Models // Nazarbayev University Repository. URL: https://nur.nu.edu.kz/items/6789fdb9-d64f-440a-9ae5-72508ce05685 (accessed: 06.01.2026) (In English)Akhmedyarova G. Macroeconomic determinants of housing price fluctuations in Kazakhstan // International Review of Economics and Management. 2023, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 421–464. URL: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v26n032023p421-464.html (accessed: 06.01.2026)Akhmedyarova G. (2023) Macroeconomic determinants of housing price fluctuations in Kazakhstan // International Review of Economics and Management, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 421–464. URL: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v26n032023p421-464.html (accessed: 06.01.2026) (In English)Kenzhegaliev B. Economic modeling of future housing prices in Kazakhstan (2001–2023) // Research Review. 2023, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 55–68. URL: https://ojs.publisher.agency/index.php/RR/article/view/1971 (accessed: 06.01.2026)Kenzhegaliev B. (2023) Economic modeling of future housing prices in Kazakhstan (2001–2023) // Research Review, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 55–68. URL: https://ojs.publisher.agency/index.php/RR/article/view/1971 (accessed: 06.01.2026) (In English)Қазақстан Республикасының пәтерлер мен үйлерді сатуға және жалға беруге арналған қазіргі жарнамалардың ірі дерекқор сайты. URL: https://m.krisha.kzQazaqstan Respublikasynyñ päterler men üilerdı satuğa jäne jalğa beruge arnalğan qazırgı jarnamalardyñ ırı derekqor saity URL: https://m.krisha.kz (In Kazakh)Lee S., Park J. Factors influencing residential property prices: a case study using econometric models // Urban Studies. 2021, vol. 58, no. 10, р. 2134–2151. URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020980894Lee S., Park J. (2021) Factors influencing residential property prices: a case study using econometric models // Urban Studies, vol. 58, no. 10, р. 2134–2151. URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020980894 (In English)García-Almirall P., Soria-Lara J. The impact of building energy efficiency on residential property values: a meta-analysis // Energy Policy. 2019, no. 138, art. 111231. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpolGarcía-Almirall P., Soria-Lara J. (2019) The impact of building energy efficiency on residential property values: a meta-analysis // Energy Policy, no. 138, art. 111231. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol (In English)Chen X., Wu F. Urbanization and housing price dynamics: evidence from rapidly growing cities // Habitat International. 2021, vol. 115, art. 102371. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.Chen X., Wu F. (2021) Urbanization and housing price dynamics: evidence from rapidly growing cities // Habitat International, vol. 115, art. 102371. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint. (In English)Smith J., Thompson R. Construction innovation and competitive advantage: a review // Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology. 2019, vol. 17, no. 5, art. 1090–1107. URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-07-2018-0104Smith J., Thompson R. (2019) Construction innovation and competitive advantage: a review // Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, vol. 17, no. 5, art. 1090–1107. URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-07-2018-0104 (In English)Brown K., Evans S. Market trends and forecasting in residential real estate: An econometric approach // Real Estate Economics. 2020, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 134–156, art. 12262. URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12262Brown K., Evans S. (2020) Market trends and forecasting in residential real estate: an econometric approach // Real Estate Economics, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 134–156, art. 12262. URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12262 (In English)Johnson P., Lee M. The role of domestic product innovation in enhancing construction sector competitiveness // Construction Innovation. 2022, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 495–512. URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/CI-11-2021-0123Johnson P., Lee M. (2022) The role of domestic product innovation in enhancing construction sector competitiveness // Construction Innovation, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 495–512. URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/CI-11-2021-0123 (In English)Портер М. Конкуренция / пер. с англ. – Санкт-Петербург: Вильямс, 2005. – С. 608–612.Porter M. (2005) Konkurencija / per. s angl. Sankt-Peterburg: Vil’jams. Р. 608–612. (In Russian)Chin A., Ng A. Economic Factors Affecting Property Prices in Urban Real Estate Markets // Journal of Property Research. 2019, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 321–336.Chin A., Ng A. (2019) Economic Factors Affecting Property Prices in Urban Real Estate Markets // Journal of Property Research, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 321–336. (In English)Lee S., Kim H. Modeling Housing Price Dynamics Using Econometric Approaches // Journal of Real Estate Economics. 2020, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 77–93.Lee S., Kim H. (2020) Modeling Housing Price Dynamics Using Econometric Approaches // Journal of Real Estate Economics, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 77–93. (In English)

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.