turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-2-219-232turan-5569Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА: ИСТОРИЯ, ТЕОРИЯ, ПРАКТИКАECONOMY: HISTORY, THEORY, PRACTICEРазработка прогноза уровня продолжительности жизни с учетом влияния наиболее значимых социально-экономических факторовDeveloping a forecast of life expectancy levels with consideration of the impact of the most significant socio-economic factorshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4913-3886РузановР. М.RuzanovR. M.

к.э.н., ведущий научный сотрудник 

г. Алматы

c.e.s., leading research fellow

Almaty

r.ruzanov@q.edu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7439-7969ШәукеноваЗ. К.ShaukenovaZ. K.

д.с.н., академик НАН РК, профессор 

г. Алматы

d.s.s., acad. of NAS RK, professor

Almaty

zarema_13@bk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6389-9637ПанзабековаA. Ж.PanzabekovaA. Zһ.

к.э.н., профессор, главный научный сотрудник 

г. Алматы

c.e.s., professor, chief researcher

Almaty

aksanat@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0003-1971-4433КопбосыноваА. Н.KopbossynovaA. N.

младший научный сотрудник 

г. Алматы

junior researcher

Almaty

aluakpb@gmail.comQ UniversityКазахстанQ UniversityKazakhstanИнститут философии, политологии и религиоведения КН МНВО РККазахстанInstitute of Philosophy, Political Sciences and Religious Studies CS MSHE RKKazakhstanИнститут экономики КН МНВО РККазахстанInstitute of Economics CS MSHE RKKazakhstan20261407202602219232Copyright © Рузанов Р.М., Шәукенова З.К., Панзабекова A.Ж., Копбосынова А.Н., 20262026Рузанов Р.М., Шәукенова З.К., Панзабекова A.Ж., Копбосынова А.Н.Ruzanov R.M., Shaukenova Z.K., Panzabekova A.Z., Kopbossynova A.N.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5569

В статье рассматриваются особенности динамики ожидаемой продолжительности жизни в Республике Казахстан и разрабатывается сценарный прогноз показателя до 2030 г. Актуальность исследования обусловлена тем, что ожидаемая продолжительность жизни является интегральным индикатором качества социальноэкономического развития, состояния общественного здоровья и устойчивости страны к внешним шокам. Цель исследования заключается в построении прогноза ОПЖ в Казахстане с учетом влияния социальноэкономических, экологических и шоковых факторов. Методологическую основу составили сравнительный анализ динамики показателей, корреляционный анализ Пирсона, моделирование временных рядов с использованием модели ARIMAX и сценарное прогнозирование. Информационной базой послужили годовые данные за 2014–2025 гг. по ОПЖ, ВВП на душу населения, уровню безработицы и концентрации PM2.5. Для учета пандемийного периода введена фиктивная переменная COVID. Результаты исследования показали, что динамика ОПЖ в Казахстане характеризуется долгосрочным ростом, резким снижением в 2020–2021 гг. и последующим восстановлением. Корреляционный анализ выявил положительную связь ОПЖ с ВВП и отрицательную связь с уровнем безработицы и PM2.5. Итоговая модель ARIMAX(1,1,0) показала значимую отрицательную связь между безработицей и ОПЖ, а также выраженное влияние пандемийного шока. Сценарный прогноз показал, что к 2030 г. ОПЖ может составить 77,44 года в базовом сценарии, 79,18 года – в оптимистичном и 72,51 года – в пессимистичном. Полученные результаты подчеркивают значение политики занятости, снижения экологических рисков и укрепления устойчивости системы общественного здоровья для дальнейшего демографического развития Казахстана.

The article examines the dynamics of life expectancy in the Republic of Kazakhstan and develops a scenariobased forecast of this indicator up to 2030. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that life expectancy is an integral indicator reflecting the quality of socio-economic development, the state of public health, and the country’s resilience to external shocks. The purpose of the study is to forecast life expectancy in Kazakhstan, taking into account the influence of socio-economic, environmental, and shock-related factors. The methodological framework includes comparative analysis of indicator dynamics, Pearson correlation analysis, time-series modelling using the ARIMAX model, and scenario forecasting. The empirical base consists of annual data for 2014–2025 on life expectancy, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and PM2.5 concentration. ACOVID dummy variable was introduced to account for the pandemic period. The results show that life expectancy in Kazakhstan is characterized by long-term growth, a sharp decline in 2020–2021, and subsequent recovery. The correlation analysis revealed a positive relationship between life expectancy and GDP, and a negative relationship with unemployment and PM2.5. The final ARIMAX(1,1,0) model showed a statistically significant negative relationship between unemployment and life expectancy, as well as a pronounced effect of the pandemic shock. The scenario forecast indicates that by 2030, life expectancy may reach 77.44 years under the baseline scenario, 79.18 years under the optimistic scenario, and 72.51 years under the pessimistic scenario. The findings highlight the importance of employment policy, reducing environmental risks, and strengthening the resilience of the public health system for Kazakhstan’s further demographic development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.