turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-2-352-364turan-5587Research ArticleТУРИЗМ: МИРОВОЙ ОПЫТTOURISM: WORLD EXPERIENCEОценка социально-экономического потенциала детско-юношеского туризма в РКAssessment of the socio-economic potential of youth and children’s tourism in the Republic of Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1135-9708ГалиакбаровЕ. Э.GaliakbarovE. E.

докторант

г. Астана

doctoral student 

Astana

 

e.galiakbarov@tau-edu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8769-1240МазбаевО. В.MazbaevO. B.

д.г.н., профессор

г. Астана

d.g.s, professor 

Astana

ordenbek@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9681-1515МуталиеваЛ. М.MutalievaL. M.

к.э.н., профессор 

г. Астана

c.e.s., professor 

Astana

mutalieva_lm@enu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3804-6800ДунецА. Н.DunetsA. N.

д.г.н., профессор

г. Барнаул

d.g.s., professor 

Barnaul

dunets@mail.ruЕвразийский национальный университет им. Л.Н.ГумилеваКазахстанL.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National UniversityKazakhstanАлтайский государственный университетРоссияAltai State UniversityRussian Federation20261407202602352364Copyright © Галиакбаров Е.Э., Мазбаев О.В., Муталиева Л.М., Дунец А.Н., 20262026Галиакбаров Е.Э., Мазбаев О.В., Муталиева Л.М., Дунец А.Н.Galiakbarov E.E., Mazbaev O.B., Mutalieva L.M., Dunets A.N.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5587

Путешествия, организованные для детей и подростков, давно вышли за рамки простого досуга: сегодня они воспринимаются как инвестиция в человеческий капитал нации, инструмент гражданского воспитания и один из факторов регионального развития. Несмотря на это, в казахстанской науке данный сегмент остается слабо изученным с позиций количественного анализа. Настоящая статья восполняет указанный пробел: ее цель – выявить и измерить социально-экономические факторы, определяющие масштаб и динамику детскоюношеского туризма в Казахстане на горизонте 2020–2025 гг. Исследование опирается на официальную статистику Бюро национальной статистики РК и сочетает корреляционно-регрессионный анализ, региональный сравнительный анализ и SWOT-методологию. Построенная четырехфакторная регрессионная модель объясняет 84,7% вариации объема туристских услуг в сегменте; среди детерминант выделяются подушевой ВВП, демографический потенциал молодежи, государственные ассигнования на образование и уровень туристской инфраструктуры. Все предикторы значимы при p< 0,01, нарушений предпосылок МНК не выявлено. К 2025 г. отраслевые показатели превысили допандемический уровень на 74% по объему услуг и на 29% по занятости, однако при этом сохраняется выраженная территориальная концентрация: два крупнейших города страны аккумулируют свыше 45% всего оборота сегмента. Региональный анализ фиксирует нереализованный потенциал природно богатых областей – Восточно-Казахстанской и Алматинской. Научная новизна работы состоит в разработке первой верифицированной эконометрической модели для данного сегмента казахстанского туристского рынка. Практический выход – конкретные рекомендации по государственному регулированию, субсидированию и инфраструктурному развитию, пригодные для использования при формировании отраслевых программ как на республиканском, так и на региональном уровне.

Organised travel for children and adolescents has long outgrown the boundaries of simple leisure: today it is perceived as an investment in human capital, a tool for civic education, and a driver of regional development. Despite this, the segment remains poorly studied in Kazakhstani scholarship from a quantitative perspective. This article addresses that gap: its aim is to identify and measure the socio-economic factors determining the scale and dynamics of children and youth tourism in Kazakhstan over 2020–2025. The study draws on official statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and combines correlation-regression analysis, regional comparative analysis, and SWOT methodology. The four-factor regression model explains 84.7% of the variation in tourist service volume; the key determinants are per capita GDP, the demographic potential of youth, state allocations for education, and tourist infrastructure. All predictors are significant at p<0.01, with no violations of OLS assumptions. By 2025, industry indicators had exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 74% in service volume and 29% in employment; however, a pronounced territorial concentration persists, with the two largest cities accounting for over 45% of the segment’s turnover. Regional analysis reveals the unrealised potential of East Kazakhstan and Almaty regions. The scientific novelty lies in developing the first verified econometric model for this segment. The practical outcome consists of recommendations on state regulation, subsidisation, and infrastructure development for sectoral programmes at national and regional levels.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.