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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">turan</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник университета «Туран»</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Bulletin of "Turan" University</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1562-2959</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2959-1236</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Университет «Туран»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-2-378-395</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">turan-5597</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТРИБУНА МОЛОДОГО ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>PLATFORM OF YOUNG RESEARCHER</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Оптимизация распределения государственного капитала для диверсификации экономики Казахстана в условиях бюджетных ограничений</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Оptimization of рublic capital allocation for economic diversification of Kazakhstan under budgetary constraints</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0006-8753-847X</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Нұртаза</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Nurtaza</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>докторант</p><p>г. Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>doctoral student </p><p>Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">24250278@turan-edu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7205-3289</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Алтунташ</surname><given-names>Гюльтекин</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Altuntash</surname><given-names>Gultekin</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>PhD, ассоциированный профессор </p><p>г. Стамбул</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>PhD, associate professor</p><p>Istanbul</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">altuntas@istanbul.edu.tr</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5660-3351</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бекназарова</surname><given-names>A. Т.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Beknazarova</surname><given-names>A. T.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>к.э.н., профессор </p><p>г. Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>c.e.s., professor </p><p>Almaty</p><p> </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">a.beknazarova@turan-edu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Университет «Туран»</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Turan University</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Стамбульский университет</institution><country>Турция</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Istanbul University</institution><country>Turkey</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>15</day><month>07</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>378</fpage><lpage>395</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Нұртаза А.Н., Алтунташ Г., Бекназарова A.Т., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Нұртаза А.Н., Алтунташ Г., Бекназарова A.Т.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Nurtaza A.N., Altuntash G., Beknazarova A.T.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5597">https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5597</self-uri><abstract><p>Сужение фискального пространства Казахстана делает критически важной не величину, а структуру распределения государственного капитала между секторами экономики. Цель исследования – построить и решить на официальных данных Казахстана сетевую оптимизационную модель, определяющую такое распределение ограниченного государственного капитала по секторам, которое максимизирует диверсификацию экономики при бюджетном ограничении. Методология объединяет анализ «затраты –выпуск», анализ производственной сети и оптимизацию с ограничениями. Эмпирической основой служат симметричные таблицы «затраты – выпуск» Республики Казахстан за 2020–2023 гг.: на их базе рассчитаны выходные мультипликаторы, обратные и прямые связи по Расмуссену и показатели сетевой центральности для 68 видов продукции, агрегированных в укрупненные секторы. Диверсификация операционализирована через индекс концентрации экспорта Херфиндаля-Хиршмана. Сформулирована оптимизационная модель с убывающей предельной отдачей, в которой доли секторов в фиксированном капитальном бюджете являются переменными решения, а вклад секторов в диверсификацию задается весами, скорректированными на экспортную ориентацию. Расчеты показывают, что наибольшей сетевой рычажностью обладают торговля и бизнес-услуги и металлургический комплекс, тогда как транспорт занимает среднее положение; при этом высокая сетевая центральность ресурсных секторов не означает их вклада в диверсификацию. Решение модели дает распределение, систематически расходящееся с фактической структурой инвестиций: добывающий сегмент переинвестирован относительно своего вклада в диверсификацию, а ряд несырьевых секторов недофинансирован. Научная новизна состоит в том, что секторальные приоритеты получены не качественно, а как решение формализованной оптимизационной модели с измеримыми, воспроизводимыми сетевыми параметрами.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>As Kazakhstan’s fiscal space narrows, the sectoral structure of public capital allocation becomes critical. This study constructs and solves a network optimization model using Kazakhstan’s official data to allocate limited state capital across sectors, maximizing economic diversification under budget constraints. The methodology integrates input-output analysis, production network analysis, and constrained optimization. The empirical basis comprises Kazakhstan’s 2020–2023 symmetric input-output tables, used to calculate output multipliers, Rasmussen linkages, and centrality indicators for 68 product types aggregated into broad sectors. Diversification is operationalized via the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of export concentration. The optimization model incorporates diminishing marginal returns, where sector shares in a fixed budget are decision variables, and sector contributions are determined by export-adjusted weights. Calculations show that trade, business services, and metallurgy possess the greatest network leverage, while transportation occupies a middle position; meanwhile, the high centrality of resource sectors does not imply a contribution to diversification. The model’s solution systematically diverges from the actual investment structure: the extractive sector is overinvested relative to its diversification impact, while several non-extractive sectors remain underfunded. The scientific novelty lies in deriving sectoral priorities not qualitatively, but as the solution to a formalized optimization model based on measurable, reproducible network parameters.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>диверсификация экономики</kwd><kwd>государственные инвестиции</kwd><kwd>анализ</kwd><kwd>затраты – выпуск</kwd><kwd>производственные сети</kwd><kwd>распределение капитала</kwd><kwd>бюджетные ограничения</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>economic diversification</kwd><kwd>public investment</kwd><kwd>analysis</kwd><kwd>input-output</kwd><kwd>production networks</kwd><kwd>capital allocation</kwd><kwd>budget constraints</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Corden W.M., Neary J.P. Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy // The Economic Journal. 1982. Vol. 92. No. 368. P. 825–848. 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