turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-2-412-426turan-5600Research ArticleТРИБУНА МОЛОДОГО ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯPLATFORM OF YOUNG RESEARCHERВлияние налоговых реформ на доходы домохозяйств: кейсы Казахстана и ТурцииThe impact of tax reforms on household income: case studies of Kazakhstan and Turkeyhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8421-226XМауленбердиеваГ. А.MaulenberdievaG. A.

докторант 

г. Алматы

c.e.s., professor

Almaty

guldar2018g@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7773-1712ӘбілқасымА. Б.AbylkassymA. B.

к.э.н., ст. преподаватель

г. Шымкент

с.e.s., senior lecturer

Shymkent

Abilkasym77@bk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3474-6244ОмарбаевЛ. А.OmarbakievL. A.

д.э.н., профессор

г. Алматы

c.e.s., professor

Almaty

omarbakiyev@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8985-3776ГокменАйтачGokmenAytac

PhD, ассоциированный профессор

г. Анкара

 

PhD, associate professor

Ankara

aytacgokmen@hotmail.comУниверситет «Туран»КазахстанTuran UniversityKazakhstanЦентрально-Азиатский инновационный университетКазахстан2entral Asian Innovation UniversityKazakhstanУниверситет ЧанкаяТурцияCankaya UniversityTurkey20261507202602412426Copyright © Мауленбердиева Г.А., Әбілқасым А.Б., Омарбаев Л.А., Гокмен А., 20262026Мауленбердиева Г.А., Әбілқасым А.Б., Омарбаев Л.А., Гокмен А.Maulenberdieva G.A., Abylkassym A.B., Omarbakiev L.A., Gokmen A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5600

В условиях глобальной макроэкономической нестабильности налоговая политика трансформируется из простого фискального инструмента в важнейший механизм регулирования доходов домохозяйств и социальной справедливости в развивающихся экономиках. В данном исследовании представлен сравнительный анализ налоговых реформ в Республике Казахстан и Турецкой Республике в период 2024–2026 гг. с акцентом на их различное влияние на располагаемый доход домохозяйств. Основная цель – оценить социально-экономические последствия структурных изменений в Налоговых кодексах, в частности, детально рассмотреть переход Казахстана к прогрессивной шкале индивидуального подоходного налога и политику индексации в Турции в условиях гиперинфляции. Основные направления исследования включают количественную оценку «фискального торможения», феномена «ползучести» налоговых скобок (bracket creep) и сравнительный расчет налогового клина в обеих юрисдикциях. Научная значимость заключается в раскрытии скрытых механизмов, посредством которых рост номинальной заработной платы в условиях высокой инфляции приводит к скрытому увеличению налоговой нагрузки. Практически работа оценивает конкретные риски для среднего класса и наемных работников, возникающие из-за взаимодействия инфляции и статических налоговых порогов. Ценность данного исследования состоит в новой сравнительной оценке двух различных фискальных стратегий: плановых структурных фискальных корректировок с изменением ставок НДС в Казахстане против адаптивного антикризисного управления в Турции. Полученные результаты предлагают объективные ориентиры для государственных органов по динамическому регулированию параметров налогообложения и порогов индексации с целью смягчения негативных шоков для реальных доходов населения.

Amidst global macroeconomic instability, tax policy is evolving from a mere fiscal tool into a critical mechanism for regulating household income and social equity in developing economies. This research presents a comparative analysis of tax reforms in the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Republic of Turkey during the 2024–2026 period, focusing on their divergent impacts on disposable household income. The primary objective is to evaluate the socioeconomic consequences of structural changes in Tax Codes, specifically scrutinizing Kazakhstan’s transition to a progressive Personal Income Tax scale and Turkey’s indexation policies under hyperinflation. The study’s main directions involve a quantitative assessment of “fiscal drag,” the “bracket creep” phenomenon, and a comparative calculation of the tax wedge in both jurisdictions. The scientific significance lies in uncovering the latent mechanisms by which nominal wage growth in high-inflation environments results in a hidden increase in the tax burden. Practically, the work assesses specific risks for the middle class and wage earners arising from the interplay of inflation and static tax thresholds. The value of this research consists of a novel comparative assessment of two distinct fiscal strategies: planned structural fiscal adjustments involving VAT hikes in Kazakhstan versus adaptive crisis management in Turkey. The empirical findings offer objective baseline guidelines for state authorities to dynamically adjust social tax parameters and indexation thresholds to mitigate adverse shocks on real household income.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.