turanВестник университета «Туран»Bulletin of "Turan" University1562-29592959-1236Университет «Туран»10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-2-591-603turan-5617Research ArticleТРИБУНА МОЛОДОГО ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЯPLATFORM OF YOUNG RESEARCHERARDL анализ на основе углеродоемкости, включающий институциональные механизмы торговли выбросами в КазахстанеA carbon-intensity based ARDL analysis incorporating institutional emissions trading mechanisms in Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8712-1360МухаметжановА.MukhametzhanovA.

докторант 

г. Астана

PhD student 

Astana

arnurkaz@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3942-8875ДуламбаеваР.DulambayevaR.

д.э.н., профессор

г. Астана

c.e.s., professor 

Astana

r.dulambayeva@apa.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8072-031XДинсерХасанDincerHasan

PhD, профессор

г. Стамбул

PhD, professor 

Istanbul

h.dincer@medipol.edu.trАкадемия государственного управления при Президенте Республики КазахстанКазахстанAcademy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of KazakhstanKazakhstanСтамбульский университет МедиполТурцияIstanbul Medipol UniversityTurkey20261607202602591603Copyright © Мухаметжанов А., Дуламбаева Р., Динсер Х., 20262026Мухаметжанов А., Дуламбаева Р., Динсер Х.Mukhametzhanov A., Dulambayeva R., Dincer H.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5617

Республика Казахстан ставит перед собой цель достижения углеродной нейтральности к 2060 г. и перехода к «зеленой» экономике. Целью данного исследования является изучение влияния энергоемкости, использования возобновляемых источников энергии и запуска системы торговли выбросами (СТВ) на углеродоемкость в Республике Казахстан в период с 1992 по 2022 гг. Для достижения этой цели использовался метод авторегрессионных распределенных лагов. Исследование вносит научный вклад, рассматривая углеродоемкость как зависимую переменную в эконометрическом анализе. Практическая значимость заключается во введении в модель фиктивной переменной СТВ, объясняющей зависимую переменную. Результаты исследования показали, что существует долгосрочная связь между выбранными переменными и что энергоемкость является основным фактором углеродоемкости в долгосрочной перспективе. Влияние ВИЭ статистически не подтверждено. Проверка результатов путем добавления переменной ВВП на душу населения в качестве контрольной переменной подтвердила правильность выводов базовой модели. Результаты исследования подчеркивают важность совершенствования дизайна системы торговли выбросами и усиления мер по улучшению энергоемкости для снижения углеродоемкости экономики страны.

The Republic of Kazakhstan sets the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and the transition to a green economy. The aim of this work is to study the impact of energy intensity, the use of renewable energy sources and the launch of an emissions trading system (ETS) on carbon intensity in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 1992– 2022. To achieve this goal, the method of autoregressive distribution lags was used. The research makes scientific contribution by considering carbon intensity as a target variable in econometric analyses. The practical importance lies in integrating in the model the ETS dummy variable as a determinant of the explained variable. The results of the study showed that there is a long-term relationship between the selected variables, and energy intensity is the main driver of carbon intensity in the long term. The impact of RES has not been statistically confirmed. Verification of the results by including GDP per capita variable, as controlling variable confirmed the correctness of the conclusions of the base model. The results of the work emphasize the importance of enhancing the design of the emissions trading system and improving energy intensity to increase its effectiveness in reducing the carbon intensity of the country’s economy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.