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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">turan</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник университета «Туран»</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Bulletin of "Turan" University</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1562-2959</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2959-1236</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Университет «Туран»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.46914/1562-2959-2026-1-3-73-88</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">turan-5674</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭКОНОМИКА: ИСТОРИЯ, ТЕОРИЯ, ПРАКТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ECONOMY: HISTORY, THEORY, PRACTICE</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Сценарное моделирование финансовых результатов компании в условиях неопределенности: подход на основе нечетких когнитивных карт для стратегического принятия решений</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Scenario modeling of financial results of company under uncertainty: a fuzzy cognitive maps approach to strategic decision-making</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9852-6083</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тайкулакова</surname><given-names>Г. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Taikulakova</surname><given-names>G. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>к.э.н., профессор.</p><p>Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>c.e.s., professor.</p><p>Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">gulnuratgs@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1028-7401</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Серикбаева</surname><given-names>Ж. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Serikbayeva</surname><given-names>Zh. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>к.э.н., ассистент-профессор.</p><p>Алматы</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>c.e.s., assistant professor.</p><p>Almaty</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">zh.serikbayeva@almau.edu.kz</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Алматы менеджмент университет</institution><country>Казахстан</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Almaty Management University</institution><country>Kazakhstan</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>02</day><month>10</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>73</fpage><lpage>88</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Тайкулакова Г.С., Серикбаева Ж.Д., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Тайкулакова Г.С., Серикбаева Ж.Д.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Taikulakova G.S., Serikbayeva Z.D.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5674">https://vestnik.turan-edu.kz/jour/article/view/5674</self-uri><abstract><p>В условиях растущей экономической неопределенности компаниям требуются гибкие инструменты для прогнозирования финансовых результатов и поддержки стратегических решений. Нечеткие когнитивные карты позволяют моделировать сценарии путем анализа сложных причинно-следственных связей между ключевыми бизнес-факторами. Целью данной статьи является определение влияния приоритетных факторов на финансовые результаты компаний с помощью сценарного моделирования с использованием метода нечетких когнитивных карт (FCM). Для достижения поставленной цели были изучены теоретические аспекты финансовой деятельности компании и их классификация, проведено изучение операционной деятельности исследуемой компании посредством анализа политики и факторов, влияющих на динамику денежных потоков, проведен анализ негативного влияния активного перемещения персонала на финансовые результаты. Ожидаемым результатом является разработка прагматичной концепции на основе сценарных моделей для снижения негативных факторов и улучшения финансовых результатов компании. На основе аналитического прогноза, основанного на сценарных моделях, был определен экономический эффект и подтверждена гипотеза о финансовом оздоровлении объекта исследования. В качестве рабочей гипотезы была выдвинута версия о том, что снижение влияния ключевых факторов, выявленных с помощью метода нечетких когнитивных карт в программе FCM, позволило бы разработать сценарные модели для улучшения финансовых результатов компании за счет создания мотивационного рычага для стабильного контингента сотрудников и их профессионального роста.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Amid growing economic uncertainty, companies require flexible tools for forecasting financial results and supporting strategic decisions. Fuzzy cognitive maps enable scenario modeling by analyzing complex causal relationships between key business factors. The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of priority factors on the financial results of companies using scenario modeling through the use of the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) method. To achieve this goal, the theoretical aspects of the company’s financial activities and their classification were studied, the study of the operating activities of the company under study through the analysis of policies and factors affecting the dynamics of cash flows, the analysis of the negative impact of active personnel movement on financial results. The expected result is the development of a pragmatic concept based on scenario models to reduce negative factors and improve the company’s financial results. Based on an analytical forecast based on scenario models, the economic effect was determined and the hypothesis of financial recovery of the research object was confirmed. As a working hypothesis, a version was put forward that reducing the influence of key factors identified using the fuzzy cognitive maps method in the FCM program would allow the development of scenario models to improve the company’s financial results through the creation of a motivational lever for a stable contingent of staff and their professional growth.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>нечеткие когнитивные карты</kwd><kwd>сценарное моделирование</kwd><kwd>финансовые результаты</kwd><kwd>операционная деятельность</kwd><kwd>производительность труда</kwd><kwd>текучесть кадров</kwd><kwd>повышение финансовых показателей</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>fuzzy cognitive maps</kwd><kwd>scenario modeling</kwd><kwd>financial results</kwd><kwd>operating activities</kwd><kwd>labor productivity</kwd><kwd>employee turnover</kwd><kwd>financial performance improvement</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Meadows D.H. 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