Economic and statistical methods of estimating and forecasting the enterprise production activity and realization of oilseed crops

Enhancing food security of Kazakhstan, increasing food products is one of the priority tasks of the country’s economic policy. The processing industry is one of the most important links of the agro-industrial complex as a whole, being an integral part of the country’s food security. The processing industry provides the population with quality food products, income from the sale of products, as well as jobs. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to its qualitative development and efficiency improvement by means of economic and statistical methods of evaluation and forecasting of enterprise activity. The research was performed at the micro level in the districts of Kostanay region. A number of typical farms of the region engaged in production of grain legumes and oilseed crops, processing of oilseed crops and sale of finished products were involved. The article considers economic and statistical methods of estimating the change in cash flows from the sale of oilseed linen, as well as forecasting the transformation of sales revenue up to 2026. The work presents several new aspects of the study, including adaptation to government subsidies and market demand, characterisation of the life cycle stage of the company, application of statistical analysis, and a detailed economic sense and methodological calculation of the company’s financial health. The following research methods were applied in the article: statistical method of dynamic series, interval level of the series of dynamics of cash receipts, absolute growth at prices and base values, considered the impact of unaccounted factors, growth and acceleration rates by chain and base method. As a result, the data of the study showed the instability of changes in cash from the sale of oilseed linen.

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