Three-scenario forecast of retail e-commerce market volume changes in Kazakhstan until 2026

The new stage of global development is characterized by the movement of data across national borders, which is changing the nature and patterns of commerce. Despite the existence of e-commerce for many years, the current scale of these transactions is not commensurate with the previous ones. In addition, the emergence of marketplaces has fundamentally changed the rules of the game, causing a transformation of commerce processes. The purpose of the research is to compile a forecast model of changes in the volume of Kazakhstan's retail e-commerce market in the optimistic, pessimistic and baseline scenarios. Forecast models were formed as a result of correlation and multiple regression analysis. Scenario forecasts were built taking into account changes in the volume of retail trade in the country based on current conditions of the economy functioning. The results of the study allowed to identify factors that positively and negatively affect the development of the retail e-commerce market in Kazakhstan. The first group includes the growth of the total volume of retail trade, the share of Internet users aged 16–74, the share of non-cash payments in the total structure of payments, and the second group includes the growth of cash payments. The scientific significance of the obtained results lies in the justification of the influence of a set of factors on the change in the volume of the retail e-commerce market. The obtained results can be used by authorized bodies to regulate the market under study by influencing individual factors of e-commerce development.

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