Econometric analysis of the determinants of tourism sector development in the regions of Kazakhstan

The article presents the results of a comprehensive econometric study of the factors influencing the development of the tourism sector in the regions of Kazakhstan. The relevance of the work is determined by the need to diversify the regional economy and identify growth points in the context of increasing spatial disparities. The methodological basis used is the analysis of panel data for 17 regions of the country for the period 2001-2023. A multiple regression model was constructed, allowing for a quantitative assessment of the impact of key socio-economic indicators on the volume of tourism services. The research results show a significant disparity in the development of the regions of Kazakhstan. Leading regions with a high level of socio-economic development and developed tourism infrastructure were identified, as well as regions requiring priority attention and investment to unlock their potential. The results of the regression model demonstrate its high explanatory power (R² = 0.824), confirming the adequacy of the selected variables for analyzing the determinants of tourism development. It was established that consumer incomes (β = 0.385, p < 0.001) and the development of tourism infrastructure (β = 0.294, p < 0.001) have the most significant positive influence. At the same time, a statistically significant restraining effect of social inequality (β = -0.187, p < 0.001) and unemployment (β = -0.157, p < 0.001) was revealed. The practical significance of the study lies in the development of specific recommendations for the regional policy of tourism development, including the prioritization of measures to increase population income, infrastructure development, and the reduction of socio-economic disparities. The obtained results can be used by public administration bodies when forming spatial development strategies and support programs for the tourism industry in the regions of Kazakhstan.

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