Development of the insurance system in Kazakhstan: a correlation-regression analysis of the impact of macroeconomic indicators

The purpose of this study is to identify and econometrically substantiate the impact of key macroeconomic factors on the development of the insurance market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The relevance of the topic is determined by the need to strengthen the country’s financial system and enhance the role of insurance institutions in ensuring economic stability. The object of the study is the insurance market of Kazakhstan during the period 2014–2024, while the subject of the study is the relationship between the volume of insurance premiums and such macroeconomic indicators as gross domestic product per capita, average wages, the level of economic activity of the population, inflation, unemployment, and government expenditures on healthcare. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of correlation-regression analysis methods to construct a model that allows for a quantitative assessment of the contribution of individual factors to the formation of insurance premiums. The analysis revealed that average wages and healthcare expenditures exert the strongest positive influence on the dynamics of insurance premiums, whereas the unemployment rate demonstrates a stable negative correlation. The obtained results provide a deeper understanding of the patterns of insurance sector development in the context of national economic transformation. The contribution of the study consists in the construction and testing of an econometric model that demonstrates the influence of macroeconomic factors on the insurance sector and can serve as a basis for further forecasts and recommendations. The practical significance lies in the fact that the results can serve as a foundation for developing strategies for the insurance sector, aimed at strengthening its resilience and adaptability to macroeconomic changes.

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