Prospects for expanding economic cooperation of Central Asian countries within the “5+1” formats based on risk-oriented analysis

The article examines features, risks, and prospects for expanding economic cooperation among Central Asian countries within «5+1» formats – a model where five regional states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) cooperate with one external partner (USA, China, Russia, EU, or Japan). These formats serve as instruments for integrating Central Asia into the global economy. Their flexible, weakly institutionalized nature increases adaptability but also enhances vulnerability to geopolitical, infrastructural, institutional, and climate-related factors. This institutional specificity creates significant potential for deepening cooperation, provided systematic risk management is applied. The research aims to identify prospects for expanding economic cooperation within «5+1» formats through systematization and assessment of potential risks, using institutional approach, SWOT analysis, and risk mapping. The paper classifies risks by economic nature, probability, and degree of impact, substantiating the possibility of transforming identified risks into strategic directions for developing trade, investment, transport, energy infrastructure, and ESG agenda. Scientific significance lies in developing a risk-oriented and perspective-oriented analytical model for «5+1» formats, previously studied mainly in political-diplomatic context. The study expands theoretical views on hybrid forms of international economic cooperation, demonstrating that risks can serve not only as vulnerability sources but as drivers of regional economic growth. Practical significance consists in applying results toward foreign economic policy development, transport-logistics cooperation, harmonization of technical standards, digitalization of customs procedures, and integration of ESG principles into joint economic initiatives of Central Asian countries and external partners.

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