Scenario modeling of creative economy development in the context of technological transformation

In the context of global digitalization, the creative economy is becoming a significant driver of economic diversification and labor market transformation. This study aims to develop a scenario-based forecasting model for the development of Kazakhstan’s creative economy, taking into account technological changes up to 2030. The empirical basis includes data on the current state of the sector, which accounts for approximately 3.5% of total employment (around 310 thousand people) and 2.7% of gross domestic product, as well as the results of a quantitative assessment of digitalization effects, indicating that a 1% increase in ICT service exports leads to an approximately 1.541% growth in the gross value added of creative industries. The research methodology integrates foresight approaches, scenario analysis, and econometric time series modeling. Three alternative development scenarios are proposed: “Innovative Breakthrough,” “Moderate Adaptation,” and “Technological Lag,” reflecting different trajectories of sectoral evolution. The results demonstrate a wide range of possible outcomes: under the innovative scenario, the share of creative employment may reach 5.8–6.2% by 2030, whereas the pessimistic trajectory suggests stagnation at 3.2–3.5%. The study identifies key success factors, including the development of digital infrastructure, reduction of regional disparities, modernization of the education system, and effective public policy support for creative industries. The practical significance lies in the formulation of implementation mechanisms and policy recommendations aimed at fostering the development of the creative economy and labor market.

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