Economic model of household behavioral adaptation under the introduction of time-of-use electricity tariffs

Modern energy systems face the challenge of balancing tariff efficiency with social fairness. This study aims to identify the economic and behavioral factors influencing household adaptation to time-of-use (TOU) electricity tariffs in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The main objective is to empirically determine the key determinants of consumers’ willingness to adopt time-differentiated tariffs. The research is grounded in behavioral economics principles, and data analysis was conducted using the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) approach. A survey of 388 respondents revealed that technological readiness, perceived fairness, and institutional trust are the primary drivers of behavioral intention to adopt TOU tariffs. Risk aversion negatively affects adaptation, reflecting consumer caution toward tariff changes. The environmental concern variable was statistically insignificant and excluded from the final model. The findings emphasize the importance of strengthening technological readiness, fairness, and trust to ensure the success of tariff reforms and contribute to advancing behavioral approaches in energy economics.

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