Demographic potential of rural areas in Kazakhstan: an interregional analysis in the context of socio-economic development

Sustainable rural development is determined by the complex interaction of demographic, social, and economic processes. Despite the growing body of research on rural development, the nature of the relationship between demographic potential and the level of socio-economic development of rural areas remains a subject of debate. The aim of this study is to conduct a comparative assessment of the demographic potential and socio-economic development of rural areas in selected regions of Kazakhstan and to identify the characteristics of their interrelationship. The study is based on official statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 2021–2025. Comparative, statistical, and structural analysis methods, together with a matrix approach, were employed. A comparative assessment of demographic, social, and economic indicators was carried out for the rural areas of the North Kazakhstan, Turkistan, East Kazakhstan, and West Kazakhstan regions. The findings reveal significant interregional disparities in demographic potential and socio-economic development. It was found that a high demographic potential does not necessarily correspond to higher socio-economic performance, while economic growth does not guarantee the preservation and reproduction of the rural population. The scientific novelty of the study lies in substantiating the absence of a direct linear relationship between demographic potential and the socioeconomic development of rural areas. The findings may serve as a basis for developing regionally differentiated public policies aimed at the sustainable development of rural areas.

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