From resource-based investment to value chains: Kazakhstan–EU investment cooperation

This article analyzes investment cooperation between Kazakhstan and the European Union. The authors ask whether the investment cooperation model remains traditionally resource-oriented or has shifted to a more diversified structure capable of supporting domestic and international value chains. The research methodology is based on an analysis of statistical data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan on the gross inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Kazakhstan for 2015–2025. Two interrelated concentration indicators are calculated: (1) the Herfindahl– Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures the geographic concentration of EU-27 investments by investor country, and (2) the sectoral HHI, which reflects the concentration of total incoming FDI by Kazakhstan’s main economic activities. To interpret the results, comparisons of periods before and after 2020, structural decomposition, and a qualitative assessment of the importance of individual sectors in developing value chains are used. The results show that investments from the EU-27 countries accounted for approximately 43–52% of annual gross FDI inflows to Kazakhstan throughout the analyzed period, confirming the sustainable nature of the investment partnership. At the same time, the geographic concentration of EU investments by investor country decreased: the average HHI value decreased from 0.502 in 2015–2019 to 0.385 in 2020–2025. The Netherlands’ share of positive EU-27 gross FDI inflows also declined, although it retained its position as the largest registered EU investor. The sectoral concentration of inward FDI across the economy as a whole also decreased: the average HHI value decreased from 0.295 to 0.243. The average share of mining decreased, while the shares of manufacturing, trade, transport, and information and communication increased.

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