Demographic processes in Kazakhstan: current trends and forecasting the future development

The economic development of any country depends on the nature of demographic processes. The size of the population and its composition directly affect the scale of production, demographic processes – fertility, mortality, migration – largely depend on the socio-economic situation and the living standard of the population. The research aims to assess the current state of demographic processes in Kazakhstan and forecast their development until 2050. The article gives a brief description of the demographic development over the years of independence, identifying 3 main stages different in their dynamics and background socio-economic conditions, starting with the demographic crisis of the 1990s with the threat of depopulation to stabilization and population growth in the 2000s. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of demographic processes and related indicators of the social sphere is analyzed. It is determined that the observed demographic development radically changes the existing model of population reproduction. The analysis of trends in demographic processes, and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes serve as the basis for the development of forecasts of the number and structure of the population in the future. The methods of extrapolation and the age shift were used for forecasting.

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