Analysis of factors affecting the level of housing affordability in the Republic of Kazakhstan
https://doi.org/10.46914/1562-2959-2022-1-4-50-63
Abstract
Currently, the availability and provision of housing for citizens of the country are becoming one of the priority issues for Kazakhstan. With the instability of the economic situation, there is a need to ensure the effective implementation of state actions to provide citizens with affordable housing. The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of housing market and identify factors affecting the level of its availability. In assessing the current state of Kazakhstan's affordable housing market, the following problems were identified: non-compliance with the UN standard and imperfection of the construction materials market, which showed the immaturity of this market and sensitivity to new changes and needs further development. In assessing the development of the Kazakhstan’s housing market, the mathematical model showed that the factor most affecting the price of housing is the average monthly income of households and it was found that an increase in average household wages by 1 thousand tenge will lead to an increase in housing prices by an average of 984 tenge, indicates the need to increase the volume of supply compared to the support of demand in this market. It was found that in the studied conditions 96.94% of the total variability of Y is explained by a change in X factors. The research methodology includes an analysis of factors affecting the price, supply and demand in the housing market, an assessment of HPI indicators showing how affordable housing is for citizens, and a qualitative indicator – the housing supply coefficient.
About the Author
E. B. TlessovaKazakhstan
c.e.s., associate professor
Astana
References
1. Koncepcija social’nogo razvitija Respubliki Kazahstan do 2030 goda. URL: https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P1400000396 (In Russian).
2. Kashina E.V., Saenko I.A., Krelina E.V., Pukhova V.V., Tolochko O.R. (2022) Improvement of methodology for assessing housing affordability based on regional characteristics // Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management. No. 17(2). P. 57–65. (In English).
3. Sternik G.M., Sternik S.G. (2014) Novaja metodika ocenki dostupnosti zhil’ja dlja naselenija [A new methodology for assessing housing affordability for the population] // Urbanistika i rynok nedvizhimosti. No. 2. P. 31–49. (In Russian).
4. Cherepovich A.V. (2013) Sovremennye metody izmerenija dostupnosti zhil’ja [Modern methods of measuring housing affordability] // Finansovaja analitika: problemy i reshenija. No. 7(145). P. 39–50. (In Russian).
5. Kol’ev A.A. (2004) Investicionnye vozmozhnosti naselenija na Vologodskom rynke zhil’ja [Investment opportunities of the population in the Vologda housing market] // Jekonomicheskie i social’nye peremeny v regione. – VNKC CJeMI RAN. – Vypusk 25. P. 103–106. (In Russian).
6. Shhetinin Ja.V., Savinchenko V.E. (2006) Dostupnost’ zhil’ja v Rossijskoj Federacii kak osnovnoj faktor sprosa na bankovskie ipotechnye kredity [Housing affordability in the Russian Federation as the main factor of demand for bank mortgage loans] // Bankovskoe kreditovanie. P. 14–17. (In Russian).
7. Loginov M.P. (2018) Sistema ipotechnogo zhilishhnogo kreditovanija v Rossii: problemy i puti reshenija [The system of mortgage housing lending in Russia: problems and solutions] // M.P. Loginov – Den’gi i kredit, no. 4. P. 22–30. (In Russian).
8. Volkov A.A. (2021) Ipoteka i dostupnost’ zhil’ja (na primere Vologodskoj oblasti) [Mortgage and housing affordability (on the example of the Vologda region)] // Zhilishhnye strategii. – Russian Journal of Housing Research. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 213–228. (In Russian).
9. Bekauri A. (2018) Opyt stroitel’stva social’nogo zhil’ja na primere programmy LIHTC [Experience in the construction of social housing on the example of the LIHTC program] // Obrazovanie i pravo. No. 9. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/opyt-stroitelstva-sotsialnogo-zhilya-na-primere-programmy-lihtc (In Russian).
10. Wetzstein S. (2021) Assessing post-GFC housing affordability interventions: a qualitative exploration across five international cities // International Journal of Housing Policy. No. 21(1). P. 70–102. (In English).
11. Noring L., Struthers D., Grydehøj A. (2022) Governing and financing affordable housing at the intersection of the market and the state: Denmark’s private non-profit housing system // Urban Research and Practice. No. 15(2). P. 258–274. (In English).
12. Mustafina L.R. (2014) Opredelenie dostupnosti zhil’ja dlja naselenija: metodicheskie aspekty [Determination of housing affordability for the population: methodological aspects] // Jekonomicheskie problemy regionov i otraslevyh kompleksov. P. 185–188. (In Russian).
13. Burdin D.A. (2011) Povyshenie platezhesposobnosti naselenija v sisteme dostupnogo zhil’ja Rossii [Increasing the solvency of the population in the system of affordable housing in Russia] // Nauka i sovremennost’. P. 18–22. (In Russian).
14. Chto proishodit na rynkah nedvizhimosti Almaty, Nur-Sultana, Tashkenta i Bishkeka? [What is happening in the real estate markets of Almaty, Nursultan, Tashkent and Bishkek] //Colliers International Kazakhstan. URL: https://kz.kursiv.media/2020-10-14/chto-proiskhodit-na-rynkakh-nedvizhimosti-almatynur-sultana-tashkenta-i/ (In Russian).
15. Krapin A. Dostupnost’ zhil’ja v Rossii [Housing affordability in Russia] // Terminy i sostojanie. URL: http://www.rway.ru (In Russian).
16. Shalbolova U.Zh. (2020) Razvitie gorodskogo hozjajstva v Respublike Kazahstan: monografija [Development of urban economy in the Republic of Kazakhstan: monograph] / pod obshhej redakciej Shalbolovoj U.Zh. Nur-Sultan: IP «Bulatov A.Zh.». 218 p. (In Russian).
17. Kulumbetova L.B. (2007) Ipotechnoe zhilishhnoe kreditovanie kak jeffektivnyj mehanizm reshenija zhilishhnoj problemy [Mortgage housing lending as an effective mechanism for solving the housing problem] // Jekonomicheskij vestnik Rostovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Vol. 5. No. 3. P. 130–134. (In Russian).
18. Kosareva N.B., Polidi T.D., Puzanov A.S. (2015) Zhilishhnaja politika i jekonomika v Rossii: rezul’taty i strategija razvitija [Housing policy and economy in Russia: results and development strategy]. M.: GU VShJe. 387 p. (In Russian).
19. Masjanova N.N. (2004) Rynok nedvizhimosti: voprosy teorii i metodologii [Real estate market: questions of theory and methodology]: Avtoreferat Dis. kandidata jekonomicheskih nauk: 08.00.01 (1). Obshhaja jekonomicheskaja teorija. M. 24 p. (In Russian).
20. Grabovyj P.G. (2011) Osnovnye napravlenija razvitija zhilishhnogo stroitel’stva v Rossii [The main directions of housing construction development in Russia] // Nedvizhimost’: jekonomika, upravlenie. No. 1. P. 4–9. (In Russian).
21. Gorshkov R.K., Dikareva V.A. (2010) Formirovanie rynka dostupnogo zhil’ja v Rossii [Formation of the affordable housing market in Russia]. M.: Izd-vo ASV (Associacii stroitel’nyh vuzov). 152 p. (In Russian).
22. Koftin V.V. (2006) Osnovnye napravlenija razvitija sistemy upravlenija jeffektivnym rynkom dostupnogo zhil’ja [The main directions of the development of an effective affordable housing market management system] // Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo arhitekturno-stroitel’nogo universiteta. Serija: stroitel’stvo i arhitektura. No. 6. P. 194–197. (In Russian).
23. Korol’kova D.I., Gerasimova N.A., Tkachenko G.I. (2014) Dostupnost’ zhil’ja kak indikator urovnja zhizni naselenija v regione [Housing affordability as an indicator of the standard of living of the population in the region] // Fundamental’nye issledovanija. No. 9–3. P. 635–638. (In Russian).
24. Nūrlanūly A. (2021) Qazaqstan Respublikasynyñ tūrğyn-üi naryğyn taldau [Analysis of the housing market of the Republic of Kazakhstan] // «Ekonomikany jäne qarjyny retteu mehanizmderı: jağdaiy, mäselelerı jäne bolaşağy» halyqaralyq ğylymi-praktikalyq konferensiasynyñ maqalalar jinağy. Nūr-Sūltan. P. 320–324. (In Kazakh).
25. Dannye Oficial’nogo sajta Nacional’nogo banka RK. URL: https://www.nationalbank.kz/kz (In Russian).
26. Agentstvo po strategicheskomu planirovaniju i reformam Respubliki Kazahstan. Oficial’nyj sajt Bjuro nacional’noj statistiki. URL: https://stat.gov.kz/ (In Russian).
27. Centr delovoj informacii «Kapital». Jelektronnyj resurs. URL: https://kapital.kz/real_estate/102926/chto-zhdet-rynok-nedvizhimosti-v-2022-godu.html (In Russian).
28. Oficial’nyj sajt Ministerstva truda i social’noj zashhity naselenija Respubliki Kazahstan. URL: https:// www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek (In Russian).
Review
For citations:
Tlessova E.B. Analysis of factors affecting the level of housing affordability in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Bulletin of "Turan" University. 2022;(4):50-63. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46914/1562-2959-2022-1-4-50-63