A hybrid approach to assessing the effectiveness of the “Auyl – El Besigi” state program: K-GTED and the Trinity Model

Currently, the Auyl–El Besigi (AEB) state program is primarily focused on financing infrastructure projects, but the sustainability and effectiveness of such investments largely depend on the quality of local governance and management capacity. The purpose – to develop a new theoretical and methodological framework for assessing the long-term effectiveness of the AEB aimed at integrated rural development in Kazakhstan. In the article, the general theory of economic development was used to analyze the program, based on the principle of economic discrimination and the model of the “triad of development”. The study showed to what extent the working mechanisms of the AEB correspond to the principle of economic development. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the introduction of a hybrid concept combining the principles of Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic development strategy and the Korean Trinity Model. The proposed hybrid model allows a comprehensive assessment of the synergetic effect of public investment and the potential of local government. The article provides a comparative analysis of the experiences of the Turkistan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl regions, which have applied different governance models in implementing the AEB. The findings demonstrate that the program’s effectiveness is determined not so much by the volume of funding as by its strategic orientation. In conclusion, the study proposes the use of a panel regression model based on annual panel data to empirically test the proposed hybrid framework. The results offer practical recommendations for subsequent stages of the AEB, focusing on strengthening local capacity and introducing digital governance mechanisms.

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