Developing a forecast of life expectancy levels with consideration of the impact of the most significant socio-economic factors

The article examines the dynamics of life expectancy in the Republic of Kazakhstan and develops a scenariobased forecast of this indicator up to 2030. The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that life expectancy is an integral indicator reflecting the quality of socio-economic development, the state of public health, and the country’s resilience to external shocks. The purpose of the study is to forecast life expectancy in Kazakhstan, taking into account the influence of socio-economic, environmental, and shock-related factors. The methodological framework includes comparative analysis of indicator dynamics, Pearson correlation analysis, time-series modelling using the ARIMAX model, and scenario forecasting. The empirical base consists of annual data for 2014–2025 on life expectancy, GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and PM2.5 concentration. ACOVID dummy variable was introduced to account for the pandemic period. The results show that life expectancy in Kazakhstan is characterized by long-term growth, a sharp decline in 2020–2021, and subsequent recovery. The correlation analysis revealed a positive relationship between life expectancy and GDP, and a negative relationship with unemployment and PM2.5. The final ARIMAX(1,1,0) model showed a statistically significant negative relationship between unemployment and life expectancy, as well as a pronounced effect of the pandemic shock. The scenario forecast indicates that by 2030, life expectancy may reach 77.44 years under the baseline scenario, 79.18 years under the optimistic scenario, and 72.51 years under the pessimistic scenario. The findings highlight the importance of employment policy, reducing environmental risks, and strengthening the resilience of the public health system for Kazakhstan’s further demographic development.

1. Malthus T.R. (1807) An essay on the principle of population, as it affects the future improvement of society. With remarks on the speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and other writers. London. Vol. 2. P. 126.(In English)

2. Preston S.H. (1975) The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development // Population Studies. Vol. 29. No. 2. P. 231–248. (In English)

3. Pritchett L., Summers L.H. (1993) Wealthier is healthier. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications. Vol. 1150. P. 46. (In English)

4. Cutler D., Deaton A., Lleras-Muney A. (2006) The determinants of mortality // Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 20. No. 3. P. 97–120. (In English)

5. Roffia P., Bucciol A., Hashlamoun S. (2023) (Determinants of life expectancy at birth: a longitudinal study on OECD countries // International Journal of Health Economics and Management. Vol. 23. P. 189–212. (In English)

6. Li R., Zhan Y. et al. (2025) Economic and social determinants of life expectancy in China // Frontiers in Public Health. Vol. 13. Article 1554336. (In English)

7. Aytemiz L. (2024) The long-term effect of social, educational, and health expenditures on indicators of life expectancy: an empirical analysis for the OECD countries // Frontiers in Public Health. Vol. 12. Article 1497794. (In English)

8. Zhang H. et al. (2025) Determinants of life expectancy in high longevity countries: evidence from machine learning // Frontiers in Public Health. Vol. 13. Article 1687871. (In English)

9. Murtin F. et al. Inequalities in longevity by education in OECD countries: Insights from new OECD estimates. Paris: OECD, 2017. URL: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2017/01/inequalities-in-longevity-by-education-in-oecd-countries_45ecb61a/6b64d9cf-en.pdf (accessed: 15.05.2026). (In English)

10. Byaro M., Mafwolo G., Ngereza C. (2023) Does unemployment in sub-Saharan Africa have asymmetric effects on health? A panel quantile approach // The Journal of Economic Asymmetries. Vol. 28. Article e00316. (In English)

11. Bianchi F., Bianchi G., Song D. (2023) The long-term impact of the COVID-19 unemployment shock on life expectancy and mortality rates // Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Vol. 146. Article 104581. (In English)

12. World Health Organization. Ambient (outdoor) air pollution. URL: https://www.who.int/news-room/ fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health (accessed: 24.12.2025) (In English)

13. Yu W., Xu R., Ye T., Abramson M.J., Morawska L., Jalaludin B. et al. (2024) Estimates of global mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) // The Lancet Planetary Health. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. e146–e155. (In English)

14. Lin X. et al. (2025) Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction // npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2025. Vol. 8. P. 66. (In English)

15. Orellano P., Kasdagli M.-I., Pérez Velasco R., Samoli E. (2024) Long-term exposure to particulate matter and mortality: an update of the WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines systematic review and meta-analysis // International Journal of Public Health. Vol. 69. Article 1607683. (In English)

16. Zhang Y. et al. (2025) Air pollution and life expectancy: the role of education and health expenditure in China // Frontiers in Public Health. Vol. 13. Article 1553039. (In English)

17. Andrasfay T., Goldman N. (2021) Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations // Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol. 118. No. 5. Article e2014746118. (In English)

18. Schöley J., Aburto J.M., Kashnitsky I., Kniffka M.S. et al. (2022) Life expectancy changes since COVID-19 // Nature Human Behaviour. Vol. 6. No. 12. P. 1649–1659. (In English)

19. Polizzi A. et al. (2025) Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: a cause-of-death analysis of life expectancy changes in 24 countries, 2015 to 2022 // PNAS Nexus. Vol. 4, No. 1. Article pgae508. (In English)

20. Panzabekova A.Z., Digel I.E. (2020) Factors affecting life expectancy in Kazakhstan // R-Economy. Vol. 6. No. 4. P. 261–270. (In English)

21. Harin A.D., Kojchubekov B.K. (2023) Vlijanie social’no-jekonomicheskih faktorov na ozhidaemuju prodolzhitel’nost’ zhizni // Medicina i jekologija. № 1. S. 17–20.

22. Piscitelli A. (2025) What is the nature of life expectation’s time series? // Quality & Quantity. P. 1–15. (In Russian)

23. Cai J., Hu W., Yang Y., Chen S., Si A. et al. (2023) Healthy life expectancy for 202 countries up to 2030: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble // Journal of Global Health. Vol. 13. Article 04185. (In English)

24. Qazaqstan Respublikasy strategialyq josparlau jäne reformalar jönındegı agenttıgınıñ ūlttyq statistika bürosy. URL: https://www.stat.gov.kz/ (ötınış berılgen künı: 15.05.2026) (In Kazakh)

25. World’s most polluted countries & regions. URL: https://www.iqair.com/world-most-polluted-countries (accessed: 24.12.2025) (In English)