Assessment of the socio-economic potential of youth and children’s tourism in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Organised travel for children and adolescents has long outgrown the boundaries of simple leisure: today it is perceived as an investment in human capital, a tool for civic education, and a driver of regional development. Despite this, the segment remains poorly studied in Kazakhstani scholarship from a quantitative perspective. This article addresses that gap: its aim is to identify and measure the socio-economic factors determining the scale and dynamics of children and youth tourism in Kazakhstan over 2020–2025. The study draws on official statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and combines correlation-regression analysis, regional comparative analysis, and SWOT methodology. The four-factor regression model explains 84.7% of the variation in tourist service volume; the key determinants are per capita GDP, the demographic potential of youth, state allocations for education, and tourist infrastructure. All predictors are significant at p<0.01, with no violations of OLS assumptions. By 2025, industry indicators had exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 74% in service volume and 29% in employment; however, a pronounced territorial concentration persists, with the two largest cities accounting for over 45% of the segment’s turnover. Regional analysis reveals the unrealised potential of East Kazakhstan and Almaty regions. The scientific novelty lies in developing the first verified econometric model for this segment. The practical outcome consists of recommendations on state regulation, subsidisation, and infrastructure development for sectoral programmes at national and regional levels.

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