Structural analysis of kazakhstan’s imports from China: commodity and sectoral features

This article presents an analysis of the structure of imports of the Republic of Kazakhstan from the People’s Republic of China for the period 2019–2025. The aim of the study is to identify key structural changes in import flows and to assess the degree of their concentration. Particular attention is paid to the commodity and sectoral structure of imports, as well as to the formation of economic risks associated with increasing dependence on external supplies. The empirical basis of the study includes data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the international UN Comtrade database. The research employs structural, comparative, and coefficient-based analytical methods. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) is used to quantitatively assess concentration, allowing for the evaluation of the extent to which import flows are concentrated within a limited number of commodity groups. The results show that Kazakhstan’s imports from China are characterized by steady growth alongside structural transformation. An increase in the share of machinery and equipment, transport vehicles, and other technologically significant categories has been identified. At the same time, the share of traditional consumer goods is decreasing. The scientific novelty of the study lies in substantiating the relationship between structural transformation of imports and the formation of economic risks. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the results in the development of policies aimed at import diversification, reducing dependence on a single trading partner, and ensuring sustainable foreign economic policy.

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