Industrial and agrarian potentials of Сentral Аsian countries as a foundation for the competitiveness of national economies

This article assesses the industrial and agrarian potential of Central Asian countries as a foundation for enhancing the competitiveness of their national economies, given the region’s continued dependence on commodity price cycles and its transport-geographic isolation from the world’s major economic centers. The aim of the study is to provide a scientific justification for priority directions in forming integrated production structures capable of ensuring a full production cycle, based on a comprehensive comparative analysis of the industrial-agrarian potential of the five regional countries. The analysis rests on two groups of criteria – structural preconditions (natural resources, infrastructure development, labor availability) and quantitative economic indicators (GDP, industrialization level, exports, economic structure) – with the study organized around Kazakhstan as the regional leader. The scientific and practical significance of the work lies in systematizing accumulated knowledge on regional integration, a topic insufficiently studied in the international literature with respect to the post-Soviet space, and in identifying priority sectors (energy, chemical industry, agro-industrial complex) and specific commodity chains (cotton, grains, fruits and vegetables, dairy products, and others) promising for the formation of integrated structures. The contribution of the study lies in its cross-country comparison grounded in verified official data, with an explicit acknowledgment of analytical limitations (incomplete statistics, divergent national methodologies, and the descriptive-comparative rather than strictly causal nature of the conclusions). The practical value of the findings lies in their applicability to policy recommendations for sectoral ministries, as well as their potential to serve as a foundation for further institutional and investment-focused research.

1. Koh S.G.M., Kwok A.O.J. (2017) Regional integration in Central Asia: Rediscovering the Silk Road. Tourism Management Perspectives, vol. 22, pp. 64–66. URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2017.01.002 (In English)

2. China-Central Asia collaboration a necessity. China Daily. 16.06.2025. URL: https://www.chinadaily. com.cn/a/202506/16/WS684f4eeaa310a04af22c65ae.html (accessed: 19.03.2026) (In English)

3. CentralAsia’s GDPSurpasses $500BillionAmid Strong Regional Growth. Caspian Post. 17.03.2026. URL: https://caspianpost.com/central-asia/central-asia-s-gdp-surpasses-500-billion-amid-strong-regional-growth (accessed: 19.03.2026) (In English)

4. GDP (current US$) – Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Japan Data. World Bank Group. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2023 (accessed: 21.03.2026) (In English)

5. Trade Map – Trade statistics for international business development. International Trade Centre (ITC). URL: https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx (accessed: 21.03.2026) (In English)

6. World Bank. World Development Indicators: Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP). Industry (including construction), value added (% of GDP). Services, value added (% of GDP). URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS (accessed: 21.03.2026) (In English)

7. Laldjebaev M., Isaev R., Saukhimov A. (2021) Renewable energy in Central Asia: an overview of potentials, deployment, outlook and barriers. Energy Reports, vol. 7, pp. 3125–3136. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.05.014 (In English)

8. Jekonomika Central’noj Azii: novyj vzgljad. Evrazijskij Bank Razvitija. 2022. URL: https://eabr.org/analytics/special-reports/ekonomika-tsentralnoy-azii-novyy-vzglyad/ (data obrashhenija: 21.03.2026) (in Russian)

9. Drobny N. (2023) Tokaev nazval ser’eznoe preimushhestvo stran Central’noj Azii. URL: https://www.zakon.kz/ekonomika-biznes/6406834-tokaev-nazval-sereznoe-preimushchestvo-stran-tsentralnoy-azii.html (data obrashhenija: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

10. Uzbekistan Ranks Among World’s Top 10 Gold Producers with 129 Tons Mined in 2024. UzDaily. com. 15.09.2025. URL: https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/uzbekistan-ranks-among-worlds-top-10-gold-producerswith-129-tons-mined-in-2024/ (accessed: 19.03.2026)

11. Uzbekistan Cotton Area, Yield and Production. United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (IPAD). URL: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=UZ&crop=Cotton (accessed: 19.03.2026)

12. Kazakhstan Oil Reserves, Production and Consumption Statistics. Worldometers.info. URL: https://www.worldometers.info/oil/kazakhstan-oil/ (accessed: 29.03.2026)

13. Turkmenistan natural gas production: data and insights. Offshore Technology. URL: https://www.offshore-technology.com/data-insights/turkmenistan-natural-gas-production/ (accessed: 30.05.2026)

14. Gornometallurgicheskaja otrasl’ Respubliki Kazahstan. Otchet AO «Kazahstanskaja fondovaja birzha», 2019. URL: https://kase.kz/files/presentations/ru/KASE_mining_2019.PDF (data obrashhenija: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

15. Bolee 437,1 mln tonn gruzov perevezeno zheleznodorozhnym transportom v 2024 godu. Rail-news. kz. URL: https://rail-news.kz/ru/news/19717-bolee-4371-mln-tonn-gruzov-perevezeno-zeleznodoroznymtransportom-v-2024-godu.html (data obrashhenija: 29.05.2026) (in Russian)

16. Ob#em gruzoperevozok cherez Kazahstan vyros na 7,1%, 12.06.2025. URL: https://www.inform.kz/ru/obem-gruzoperevozok-cherez-kazahstan-viros-na-71-6d86b4 (data obrashhenija: 09.03.2026) (in Russian) 17 Batishheva T. Pochemu uvelichenie perevozok ne skazyvaetsja na roste strahovanija gruzov. 2022.

17. URL: https://forbes.kz/finances/insurance/mimo_rta_1664850904/ (өtіnіsh berіlgen kүn: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

18. Kazahstan okazalsja v liderah po samoobespechennosti edoj sredi stran Evrazijskogo regiona. IS Paragraf. 2025. URL: https://prg.kz/document/?doc_id=32354388&pos=29;250 (data obrashhenija: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

19. Issledovanie EABR: Evrazijskij region mozhet «prokormit’» 600 mln chelovek. URL: https://eabr.org/press/releases/issledovanie-eabr-evraziyskiy-region-mozhet-prokormit-600-mln-chelovek/ (data obrashhenija: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

20. Vong P., Asaubaeva D., Anastasiadu A., Chjeng Czjajuje. (2023) Ustojchivaja transformacija sel’skogo hozjajstva v severnoj i Central’noj Azii// Rabochij dokument Subregional’nogo otdelenija dlja Severnoj i Central’noj Azii. 51 р. (in Russian)

21. Gross value added at basic prices (GVA) (current US$) – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.FCST.CD?end=2022&locations=KZ-KG-TJ-TM-UZ&start=1995&view=chart (accessed: 19.03.2026) (In English)

22. V Turkmenistane zafiksirovan znachimyj rost sel’hozproizvodstva. Novosti Central’noj Azii. URL: https://centralasia.news/21300-v-turkmenistane-zafiksirovan-znachimyj-rost-selhozproizvodstva.html (data obrashhenija: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

23. Insights on the Business Climate in Kazakhstan. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023, 95 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/bd780306-en (in Russian)

24. Prodovol’stvennaja bezopasnost’ i raskrytie agropromyshlennogo potenciala Evrazijskogo regiona: Doklady i rabochie dokumenty. URL: https://eabr.org/upload/iblock/8b7/EDB_2023_Report-1_FoodSecurity_rus.pdf (data obrashhenija: 25.03.2026) (in Russian)

25. Sel’skoe hozjajstvo v Central’noj Azii: kak realizovat’ potencial? Interv’ju s Irnoj Hofman (chast’ 1) – Central Asia Analytical Network. URL: https://stanradar.com/news/full/31425-selskoe-hozjajstvov-tsentralnoj-azii-kak-realizovat-potentsial-chast-ii.html (data obrashhenija: 19.03.2026) (in Russian)

26. Valovyj vypusk produkcii (uslug) sel’skogo, lesnogo i rybnogo hozjajstva v Respublike Kazahstan (2023 g.). Bjuro nacional’noj statistiki Agentstva po strategicheskomu planirovaniju i reformam Respubliki Kazahstan, 05.07.2024. URL: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/business-statistics/stat-forrest-village-hunt-fish/ publications/158420/ (data obrashhenija: 28.03.2026) (in Russian)

27. Itogi sbora urozhaja sel’skohozjajstvennyh kul’tur v 2024 godu. Nacional’nyj statisticheskij komitet Kyrgyzskoj Respubliki. URL: https://stat.gov.kg/ru/news/itogi-sbora-urozhaya-selskohozyajstvennyh-kulturv-2024-godu/ (data obrashhenija: 28.03.2026) (in Russian)

28. Rost VVP Turkmenistana za 2023 god sostavil 6,3 procenta. Turkmenistan.gov.tm. URL: https://turkmenistan.gov.tm/ru/post/80257/rost-vvp-turkmenistana-za-2023-god-sostavil-63-procenta (data obrashhenija: 28.03.2026) (in Russian)

29. VVP Turkmenistana vyros na 6,3% za desjat’ mesjacev 2024 goda. Turkmenportal.com. URL: https://turkmenportal.com/ru/news/84544-vvp-turkmenistana-vyros-na-63-za-desyat-mesyacev-2024-goda (data obrashhenija: 28.03.2026) (in Russian)

30. VVP Uzbekistana za 2024 god dostig 1,45 kvadrilliona sumov. Gazeta.uz, 07.02.2025. URL: https://www.gazeta.uz/ru/2025/02/07/gdp-uzbekistan-2024/ (data obrashhenija: 28.03.2026) (in Russian)