Scenario modeling of financial results of company under uncertainty: a fuzzy cognitive maps approach to strategic decision-making

Amid growing economic uncertainty, companies require flexible tools for forecasting financial results and supporting strategic decisions. Fuzzy cognitive maps enable scenario modeling by analyzing complex causal relationships between key business factors. The purpose of this article is to determine the impact of priority factors on the financial results of companies using scenario modeling through the use of the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) method. To achieve this goal, the theoretical aspects of the company’s financial activities and their classification were studied, the study of the operating activities of the company under study through the analysis of policies and factors affecting the dynamics of cash flows, the analysis of the negative impact of active personnel movement on financial results. The expected result is the development of a pragmatic concept based on scenario models to reduce negative factors and improve the company’s financial results. Based on an analytical forecast based on scenario models, the economic effect was determined and the hypothesis of financial recovery of the research object was confirmed. As a working hypothesis, a version was put forward that reducing the influence of key factors identified using the fuzzy cognitive maps method in the FCM program would allow the development of scenario models to improve the company’s financial results through the creation of a motivational lever for a stable contingent of staff and their professional growth.

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